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11

ADUR

⛏️ Basic Materials

Aduro Clean Technologies Inc.

Conservative #1363Aggressive #1385Moderate RiskF↑ 17pt
$10.85-8.28%
Day High$11.50
Day Low$10.80
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$364M
52W Low $352W High $18
Market Cap
$361M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-31.5%
Sector avg: 40.4%
Earnings Growth
-63.3%
Profit Margin
-6340.4%
Sector avg: -552.9%
Debt/Equity
0.01

Why This Score

ADUR scores 11.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (18.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -20.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ADUR would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score11.6
Fundamental Score37.3
ML Score2.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
9.3
6 Month
10.4
Primary
1 Year
11.0

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality — significant fundamental weaknesses
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Anomalous margin data — extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Speculative micro-cap — no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 10 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.2%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
90
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
59
Grade Csmall cap
Base
15.2
SHAP
+0.6
Factors
-1.2
Divergence
-3.0
Final
11.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

27AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth0
Stability69
Investment18

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)33.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)54.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)91.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-30.0% to -18.0%
Medium-term
-40.1% to -24.1%
Long-term
-51.2% to -29.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 2

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+113.2%
Coverage1 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score90.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+1.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+114.4%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.05)
Relative Strength vs Sector+53.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.792
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P3
Revenue growth vs Basic Materials peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Basic Materials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P10
Free cash flow vs Basic Materials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 37 relative to sector peers37/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 2th percentileP2
Blended score: 80% fundamental (37) + 20% ML (2) = 30.230.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 27% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered — see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +0.6pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -3.0pt (ML 35pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Speculative: SPEC_GROWTH, ANOMALY_MARGIN, SPEC_MICRO (10.0pt penalty)Speculative
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Basic Materials — Rank #28 of 31 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ADUR11.6N/A-31.5%-6340.4%$361M
RGLD77.839.418.8%46.2%$19.5B
LIN71.932.90.5%19.9%$234.9B
BCPC71.339.63.4%13.5%$5.8B
STLD67.823.83.6%6.5%$28.0B
UFPI67.621.2-7.8%6.2%$6.0B
WDFC62.736.05.0%14.4%$3.2B
IOSP60.217.3-3.7%6.6%$1.9B
KALU58.018.611.5%3.3%$2.1B
SCZM53.813.15.3%25.1%$1.2B
ELE53.6105.829.9%15.4%$1.5B
HWKN52.336.96.0%7.8%$3.1B
MEOH51.917.9-0.1%6.0%$3.8B
AUGO51.313.842.5%-5.1%$7.0B
SSRM48.627.3-30.2%-26.2%$6.5B
ALM41.9N/AN/A-216.3%$3.8B
Sector Average41.737.540.4%-552.9%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy1 analysts
Buy: 1
Price Target
$22consensus
Low $22Median $22High $22
+102.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Aduro Clean Technologies Inc. develops water-based chemical recycling technologies. Its platform converts end-of-life plastics and tire rubber into specialty chemicals and fuels; upgrades heavy crude oils; and transforms renewable oils into renewable fuels and specialty chemicals. The company is based in London, Canada.

CEO
Ofer Vicus
Beta
1.49
Industry
Chemicals - Specialty
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
42.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-38.6%
High: $17.66
From 52W Low
+210.9%
Low: $3.49
Moving Averages
10-Day
$11.10
Below
20-Day
$11.30
Below
50-Day
$12.20
Below
200-Day
$11.80
Below
60-Day Support
$10.11
60-Day Resistance
$15.45
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 31/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-8.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+22.74%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.41x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
1
Confidence: 50%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
No entry — active downtrend
Exit Target
Exit position if held
Stop Level
No stop — exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend — price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only — derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$122,706$44,500$74,670$63,399
Gross Profit$122,706$44,500$74,670$63,399
Operating Income$-5M$-5M$-3M$-3M
Net Income$-6M$-6M$-4M$-3M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.21$-0.20$-0.13$-0.10
Gross Margin100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin-4435.0%-11047.6%-4365.3%-4834.3%
Net Margin-5266.2%-14213.5%-4977.6%-4498.1%

Why This Stock

Basic Materials

Tradability FilterGrade C — 59/100Score impact: -13.2pt

Volume
79
491K avg/day
Dollar Vol
50
$5M/day
Float
52
22M shares
Mkt Cap
15
$361M
Range
100
406% spread
Composite Liquidity Score59/100
FDCBA
small cap

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.05x dampening
weinstein decliningsevere revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
65.6%
Outstanding Shares
34M
Bid-Ask Spread
406.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.