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KALU

⛏️ Basic Materials

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

Conservative #411Aggressive #148Low Risk
$131.06-0.80%
Day High$131.50
Day Low$128.14
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$2.1B
52W Low $4752W High $150
Market Cap
$2.1B
P/E Ratio
18.6
Sector avg: 37.5
Rev Growth
11.5%
Sector avg: 40.4%
Earnings Growth
140.4%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Sector avg: -552.9%
Debt/Equity
1.36

Why This Score

KALU scores 58.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (78/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.36) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. KALU's rank of #411 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score58.0
Fundamental Score57.5
ML Score50.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
50.7
6 Month
56.7
Primary
1 Year
59.6

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality — weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
55
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
61
Grade Blow volume, low float
Base
54.0
SHAP
+3.4
Factors
+0.6
Final
58.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

63AVG
Value73
Quality39
Growth82
Stability72
Investment51

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)59.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)95.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)53.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.7% to +2.4%
Medium-term
-1.9% to +4.2%
Long-term
-2.2% to +6.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 50

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score54.5/100
Target Upside-3.8%
Coverage22 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.1%
6M Momentum+0.8%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+22.7%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.79)
Relative Strength vs Sector+49.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.022
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P80
Revenue growth vs Basic Materials peers
Sector PE Rank
P80
Valuation vs Basic Materials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P27
Free cash flow vs Basic Materials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 58 relative to sector peers58/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 50th percentileP50
Blended score: 80% fundamental (58) + 20% ML (50) = 56.056.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 3% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +3.4pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Basic Materials — Rank #8 of 31 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
KALU58.018.611.5%3.3%$2.1B
RGLD77.839.418.8%46.2%$18.7B
LIN71.932.90.5%19.9%$236.7B
BCPC71.339.63.4%13.5%$5.8B
STLD67.823.83.6%6.5%$27.7B
UFPI67.621.2-7.8%6.2%$6.1B
WDFC62.736.05.0%14.4%$3.2B
IOSP60.217.3-3.7%6.6%$1.9B
SCZM53.713.15.3%25.1%$1.1B
ELE53.6105.829.9%15.4%$1.4B
HWKN52.336.96.0%7.8%$3.1B
MEOH51.917.9-0.1%6.0%$3.7B
AUGO51.313.842.5%-5.1%$7.1B
SSRM48.627.3-30.2%-26.2%$6.2B
ALM41.8N/AN/A-216.3%$3.8B
SOLS41.553.93.1%6.1%$12.7B
Sector Average41.637.540.4%-552.9%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation engages in manufacture and sale of semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products in the United States and internationally. The company offers rolled, extruded, and drawn aluminum products used for aerospace and defense, aluminum beverage and food packaging, automotive and general engineering products. The company's automotive extrusions include extruded aluminum products for structural components, crash management systems, anti-lock braking systems, and drawn tubes for drive shafts, as well as offers fabrication services, including sawing and cutting to length. Its packaging products consist of bare and coated 3000- and 5000-series alloy aluminum coil used for beverage and food packaging industry; and Its general engineering products comprise alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire, and standard extrusion shapes used in various applications, including the production of military vehicles, ordnances, semiconductor manufacturing cells, electronic devices, after-market motor sport parts, tooling plates, parts for machinery and equipment, bolts, screws, nails, and rivets. In addition, it offers rerolled, extruded, drawn, and cast billet aluminum products for industrial end uses. It sells its products directly to customers through sales personnel located in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and China, as well as through independent sales agents in other regions of Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Foothill Ranch, California.

CEO
Keith A. Harvey
Employees
3,900
Beta
1.38
Industry
Aluminum
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
50.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-12.6%
High: $150
From 52W Low
+180%
Low: $46.81
Moving Averages
10-Day
$133.40
Below
20-Day
$134.50
Below
50-Day
$126.60
Above
200-Day
$93.40
Above
60-Day Support
$94.21
60-Day Resistance
$150
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 82/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+40.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+23.07%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.34x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Breakout Volume ConfirmedRecent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$929M$844M$823M$777M
Gross Profit$93M$83M$71M$104M
Operating Income$61M$49M$38M$41M
Net Income$28M$40M$23M$22M
EPS (Diluted)$1.68$2.38$1.41$1.31
Gross Margin10.0%9.8%8.6%13.4%
Operating Margin6.5%5.8%4.6%5.3%
Net Margin3.0%4.7%2.8%2.8%

Why This Stock

Basic MaterialsP/E ratio of 18.6Revenue growth 11.5%Valuation below sector median (P/E 18.6)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 61/100Score impact: -5.2pt

Volume
46
189K avg/day
Dollar Vol
83
$24M/day
Float
36
16M shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.1B
Range
100
220% spread
Composite Liquidity Score61/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$87.91$141.0746.4%Wide
2022$59.24$107.4157.8%Wide
2023$53.67$94.5555.2%Wide
2024$59.52$102.4253%Wide
2025$46.81$119.1387.2%Wide
3-Year Range
87.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
97.3%
Outstanding Shares
16M
Bid-Ask Spread
220.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.