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60

IOSP

⛏️ Basic Materials

Innospec Inc.

Conservative #355Aggressive #579Low RiskF↑ 19pt
$77.58-0.73%
Day High$78.44
Day Low$76.90
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$1.9B
52W Low $7052W High $106
Market Cap
$1.9B
P/E Ratio
17.3
Sector avg: 37.5
Rev Growth
-3.7%
Sector avg: 40.4%
Earnings Growth
227.5%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Sector avg: -552.9%
Debt/Equity
0.07

Why This Score

IOSP scores 60.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.07) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.5 points) applied. IOSP's rank of #355 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score60.2
Fundamental Score56.1
ML Score69.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
60.4
6 Month
67.5
Primary
1 Year
71.0

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality — moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
55
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
61
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
63
Grade B
Base
56.2
SHAP
+3.2
Factors
+0.8
Final
60.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

66AVG
Value78
Quality40
Growth66
Stability80
Investment67

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)59.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)56.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.2% to +4.0%
Medium-term
-2.9% to +6.6%
Long-term
-3.5% to +9.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 69

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.1/100
Target Upside+45.0%
Coverage9 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-14.5%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector-70.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.3)
Momentum Quality-0.113
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
44%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P27
Revenue growth vs Basic Materials peers
Sector PE Rank
P87
Valuation vs Basic Materials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P70
Free cash flow vs Basic Materials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 56 relative to sector peers56/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 69th percentileP69
Blended score: 80% fundamental (56) + 20% ML (69) = 58.758.7
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 22% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +3.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Value trap penalty: -0.5ptValue Trap
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Basic Materials — Rank #7 of 31 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
IOSP60.217.3-3.7%6.6%$1.9B
RGLD77.839.418.8%46.2%$18.7B
LIN71.932.90.5%19.9%$236.7B
BCPC71.339.63.4%13.5%$5.8B
STLD67.823.83.6%6.5%$27.7B
UFPI67.621.2-7.8%6.2%$6.1B
WDFC62.736.05.0%14.4%$3.2B
KALU58.018.611.5%3.3%$2.1B
SCZM53.713.15.3%25.1%$1.1B
ELE53.6105.829.9%15.4%$1.4B
HWKN52.336.96.0%7.8%$3.1B
MEOH51.917.9-0.1%6.0%$3.7B
AUGO51.313.842.5%-5.1%$7.1B
SSRM48.627.3-30.2%-26.2%$6.2B
ALM41.8N/AN/A-216.3%$3.8B
SOLS41.553.93.1%6.1%$12.7B
Sector Average41.637.540.4%-552.9%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Innospec Inc. develops, manufactures, blends, markets, and supplies specialty chemicals in the United States, rest of North America, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company's Fuel Specialties segment offers a range of specialty chemical products that are used as additives in various fuels. This segment's products are used in the operation of automotive, marine, and aviation engines; power station generators; and heating oil. Its Performance Chemicals segment provides technology-based solutions for its customers' processes or products that focuses on the personal care, home care, agrochemical, and metal extraction markets. The company's Oilfield Services segment develops and markets chemical solutions for fracturing, stimulation, and completion operations; and products for oil and gas production, as well as products to prevent loss of mud in drilling operations. It sells its products primarily to oil and gas exploration and production companies, oil refineries, fuel manufacturers and users, personal care and home care companies, formulators of agrochemical and metal extraction formulations, and other chemical and industrial companies. The company was formerly known as Octel Corp. and changed its name to Innospec Inc. in January 2006. Innospec Inc. was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.

CEO
Patrick S. Williams
Employees
2,450
Beta
0.88
Industry
Chemicals - Specialty
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
21.4
Oversold
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-26.4%
High: $105.4
From 52W Low
+10.7%
Low: $70.1
Moving Averages
10-Day
$82.40
Below
20-Day
$83.80
Below
50-Day
$81.00
Below
200-Day
$81.10
Below
60-Day Support
$72.96
60-Day Resistance
$92.14
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 6/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-4.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-5.28%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.34x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
5
Confidence: 90%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-12)

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$456M$442M$440M$441M
Gross Profit$127M$117M$123M$125M
Operating Income$47M$31M$34M$43M
Net Income$47M$13M$24M$33M
EPS (Diluted)$1.91$0.52$0.94$1.31
Gross Margin28.0%26.4%28.0%28.4%
Operating Margin10.3%7.0%7.8%9.6%
Net Margin10.4%2.9%5.3%7.4%

Why This Stock

Basic MaterialsP/E ratio of 17.3Valuation below sector median (P/E 17.3)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 63/100Score impact: -1.2pt

Volume
52
224K avg/day
Dollar Vol
75
$18M/day
Float
54
24M shares
Mkt Cap
59
$1.9B
Range
85
51% spread
Composite Liquidity Score63/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 18/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$81.00$107.7328.3%Moderate
2022$83.13$115.6632.7%Moderate
2023$91.74$125.8731.4%Moderate
2024$103.97$133.7125%Moderate
2025$70.10$117.0850.2%Wide
3-Year Range
62.4%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.8%
Outstanding Shares
25M
Bid-Ask Spread
51.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.