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ALM

⛏️ Basic Materials

Almonty Industries Inc. Common Shares

Aggressive #829High RiskF↑ 27pt
$17.84+6.83%
Day High$17.84
Day Low$16.71
Volume3.6M
Mkt Cap$4.6B
52W Low $252W High $18
Market Cap
$3.8B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
N/A
Sector avg: 40.4%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Profit Margin
-216.3%
Sector avg: -552.9%
Debt/Equity
1.15

Why This Score

ALM scores 41.8 on the Aggressive profile, blending a fundamental score (55% weight, emphasizing growth and momentum (91% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (45% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong momentum (364%) — the market is rewarding this name.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (364%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.15) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -11.5 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ALM would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score41.8
Fundamental Score62.3
ML Score36.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
8.5
6 Month
9.5
Primary
1 Year
10.0

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality — significant fundamental weaknesses
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Conservative score reduced by 0.9 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
14.7%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
64
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
95
Grade A
Base
44.4
SHAP
+1.0
Factors
-0.9
Conviction
-1.1
Divergence
-1.7
Final
41.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

33AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth50
Stability37
Investment26

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)44.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)69.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage88%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-18.3% to -11.3%
Medium-term
-25.3% to -15.2%
Long-term
-31.8% to -18.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 36

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside-8.3%
Coverage3 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score64.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+3.6%
6M Momentum+2.1%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+152.5%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.58)
Relative Strength vs Sector+307.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.810
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P52
Revenue growth vs Basic Materials peers
Sector PE Rank
P39
Valuation vs Basic Materials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P26
Free cash flow vs Basic Materials peers
Growth Deviation
0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 62 relative to sector peers62/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 36th percentileP36
Blended score: 55% fundamental (62) + 45% ML (36) = 50.550.5
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.3%; Drawdown 50% → 0.0pt; Positive momentum 364% → -5.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered — see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -1.1pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -1.7pt (ML 26pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Speculative: SPEC_GROWTH (0.9pt penalty)Speculative

Sector Peer Comparison(Basic Materials — Rank #15 of 31 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ALM41.8N/AN/A-216.3%$3.8B
RGLD77.839.418.8%46.2%$18.7B
LIN71.932.90.5%19.9%$236.7B
BCPC71.339.63.4%13.5%$5.8B
STLD67.823.83.6%6.5%$27.7B
UFPI67.621.2-7.8%6.2%$6.1B
WDFC62.736.05.0%14.4%$3.2B
IOSP60.217.3-3.7%6.6%$1.9B
KALU58.018.611.5%3.3%$2.1B
SCZM53.713.15.3%25.1%$1.1B
ELE53.6105.829.9%15.4%$1.4B
HWKN52.336.96.0%7.8%$3.1B
MEOH51.917.9-0.1%6.0%$3.7B
AUGO51.313.842.5%-5.1%$7.1B
SSRM48.627.3-30.2%-26.2%$6.2B
SOLS41.553.93.1%6.1%$12.7B
Sector Average41.637.540.4%-552.9%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy3 analysts
Buy: 3
Price Target
$14consensus
Low $14Median $14High $14
-21.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Almonty Industries Inc. engages in mining, processing, and shipping of tungsten concentrate. The company explores for tin and tungsten deposits. It holds a portfolio of projects and mines located in Spain, Portugal, and Republic of Korea. Almonty Industries Inc. is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

CEO
Lewis Black
Beta
1.31
Industry
Other Precious Metals

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
75.9
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
+0%
High: $17.84
From 52W Low
+464.6%
Low: $3.16
Moving Averages
10-Day
$15.10
Above
20-Day
$14.10
Above
50-Day
$11.20
Above
200-Day
N/A
60-Day Support
$6.17
60-Day Resistance
$17.84

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025
Revenue$9M
Gross Profit$1M
Operating Income$-3M
Net Income$33M
EPS (Diluted)$0.13
Gross Margin14.4%
Operating Margin-36.2%
Net Margin381.7%

Why This Stock

Basic Materials

Tradability FilterGrade A — 95/100Score impact: -20.4pt

Volume
100
3.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$58M/day
Float
100
165M shares
Mkt Cap
65
$3.8B
Range
100
575% spread
Composite Liquidity Score95/100
FDCBA
Free Float
64.3%
Outstanding Shares
256M
Bid-Ask Spread
575.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.