Back to Dashboard
53

ELE

⛏️ Basic Materials

Elemental Royalty Corporation Common Stock

Conservative #530Aggressive #355Moderate Risk
$23.12+2.71%
Day High$23.13
Day Low$22.10
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$1.5B
52W Low $852W High $27
Market Cap
$1.4B
P/E Ratio
105.8
Sector avg: 37.5
Rev Growth
29.9%
Sector avg: 40.4%
Earnings Growth
91.3%
Profit Margin
15.4%
Sector avg: -552.9%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

ELE scores 53.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (88/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (144%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated valuation at 105.8x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (14.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-8.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score53.6
Fundamental Score61.4
ML Score44.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
51.5
6 Month
57.6
Primary
1 Year
60.6

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality — moderate profitability or leverage
1 quality flag detected — see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-333.3%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
58
Grade C
Base
50.0
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.4
Divergence
-0.4
Final
53.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

56AVG
Value29
Quality41
Growth100
Stability75
Investment35

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)61.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)84.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)64.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.8% to +2.3%
Medium-term
-2.1% to +4.0%
Long-term
-2.5% to +5.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 44

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.4%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+103.2%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.29)
Relative Strength vs Sector+88.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.147
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P90
Revenue growth vs Basic Materials peers
Sector PE Rank
P3
Valuation vs Basic Materials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P40
Free cash flow vs Basic Materials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 61 relative to sector peers61/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 44th percentileP44
Blended score: 80% fundamental (61) + 20% ML (44) = 57.957.9
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 21% → 0.0pt; Positive momentum 144% → -3.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +2.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.4pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -0.4pt (ML 17pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-333.3%) — earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Basic Materials — Rank #10 of 31 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ELE53.6105.829.9%15.4%$1.4B
RGLD77.839.418.8%46.2%$18.7B
LIN71.932.90.5%19.9%$236.7B
BCPC71.339.63.4%13.5%$5.8B
STLD67.823.83.6%6.5%$27.7B
UFPI67.621.2-7.8%6.2%$6.1B
WDFC62.736.05.0%14.4%$3.2B
IOSP60.217.3-3.7%6.6%$1.9B
KALU58.018.611.5%3.3%$2.1B
SCZM53.713.15.3%25.1%$1.1B
HWKN52.336.96.0%7.8%$3.1B
MEOH51.917.9-0.1%6.0%$3.7B
AUGO51.313.842.5%-5.1%$7.1B
SSRM48.627.3-30.2%-26.2%$6.2B
ALM41.8N/AN/A-216.3%$3.8B
SOLS41.553.93.1%6.1%$12.7B
Sector Average41.637.540.4%-552.9%

Company Overviewvia FMP

A gold-focused royalty company that acquires and manages royalty interests in precious and base-metal mining operations globally.

CEO
David Morrell Cole
Beta
0.33
Industry
Other Precious Metals

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
70.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-14.2%
High: $26.96
From 52W Low
+83.8%
Low: $12.58
Moving Averages
10-Day
$21.50
Above
20-Day
$21.20
Above
50-Day
$19.30
Above
200-Day
N/A
60-Day Support
$14.01
60-Day Resistance
$26.96

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$7M$9M$12M$5M
Gross Profit$4M$6M$6M$3M
Operating Income$2M$3M$4M$592,785
Net Income$1M$162,636$3M$130,218
EPS (Diluted)$0.06$0.01$0.14$0.01
Gross Margin64.3%60.1%53.8%56.7%
Operating Margin26.2%29.3%33.6%11.1%
Net Margin20.0%1.8%29.6%2.4%

Why This Stock

Basic MaterialsRevenue growth 29.9%Profit margin 15.4%

Tradability FilterGrade C — 58/100Score impact: -4.1pt

Volume
57
268K avg/day
Dollar Vol
52
$6M/day
Float
55
25M shares
Mkt Cap
48
$1.4B
Range
100
246% spread
Composite Liquidity Score58/100
FDCBA
Free Float
38.8%
Outstanding Shares
64M
Bid-Ask Spread
246.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.