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RGLD

⛏️ Basic Materials

Royal Gold, Inc.

Conservative #27Aggressive #23Low Risk
$294.38+2.41%
Day High$294.73
Day Low$282.00
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$19.3B
52W Low $14352W High $306
Market Cap
$18.7B
P/E Ratio
39.4
Sector avg: 37.5
Rev Growth
18.8%
Sector avg: 40.4%
Earnings Growth
38.7%
Profit Margin
46.2%
Sector avg: -552.9%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

RGLD scores 77.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 46.2%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (95/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (93/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (11.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-1.5 points) applied. RGLD's rank of #27 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score77.8
Fundamental Score70.3
ML Score95.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
55.1
6 Month
61.5
Primary
1 Year
64.8

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality — solid metrics, minor concerns possible
1 quality flag detected — see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Commodity beta: Gold earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentals

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
63
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
93
Grade A
Base
75.3
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.7
Divergence
-1.5
Final
77.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

80AVG
Value55
Quality95
Growth90
Stability90
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)73.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)89.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)67.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.2% to +1.8%
Medium-term
-2.9% to +3.1%
Long-term
-3.6% to +4.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 95

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.4/100
Target Upside-0.1%
Coverage28 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score62.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.0%
6M Momentum+0.6%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+36.5%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.62)
Relative Strength vs Sector+40.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.802
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P87
Revenue growth vs Basic Materials peers
Sector PE Rank
P17
Valuation vs Basic Materials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P57
Free cash flow vs Basic Materials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 95th percentileP95
Blended score: 80% fundamental (70) + 20% ML (95) = 75.275.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 17% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +1.9pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.7pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -1.5pt (ML 25pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Commodity beta: Gold earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Basic Materials — Rank #1 of 31 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
RGLD77.839.418.8%46.2%$18.7B
LIN71.932.90.5%19.9%$236.7B
BCPC71.339.63.4%13.5%$5.8B
STLD67.823.83.6%6.5%$27.7B
UFPI67.621.2-7.8%6.2%$6.1B
WDFC62.736.05.0%14.4%$3.2B
IOSP60.217.3-3.7%6.6%$1.9B
KALU58.018.611.5%3.3%$2.1B
SCZM53.713.15.3%25.1%$1.1B
ELE53.6105.829.9%15.4%$1.4B
HWKN52.336.96.0%7.8%$3.1B
MEOH51.917.9-0.1%6.0%$3.7B
AUGO51.313.842.5%-5.1%$7.1B
SSRM48.627.3-30.2%-26.2%$6.2B
ALM41.8N/AN/A-216.3%$3.8B
SOLS41.553.93.1%6.1%$12.7B
Sector Average41.637.540.4%-552.9%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Royal Gold, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties, and related interests. It focuses on acquiring stream and royalty interests or to finance projects that are in production or in development stage in exchange for stream or royalty interests, which primarily consists of gold, silver, copper, nickel, zinc, lead, and cobalt. As of June 30, 2022, the Company owned interests in 185 properties on five continents, including interests on 41 producing mines and 19 development stage projects. Its stream and royalty interests on properties are located in the United States, Canada, Chile, the Dominican Republic, Australia, Africa, Mexico, and internationally. Royal Gold, Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

CEO
William H. Heissenbuttel
Employees
30
Beta
0.65
Industry
Gold
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
71.2
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-3.9%
High: $306.25
From 52W Low
+105.9%
Low: $142.95
Moving Averages
10-Day
$282.80
Above
20-Day
$277.00
Above
50-Day
$259.60
Above
200-Day
$200.40
Above
60-Day Support
$195.25
60-Day Resistance
$306.25
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+46.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+14.91%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.87x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
75
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$375M$252M$210M$192M
Gross Profit$242M$185M$152M$167M
Operating Income$225M$175M$142M$123M
Net Income$94M$127M$132M$113M
EPS (Diluted)$1.16$1.92$2.01$1.72
Gross Margin64.5%73.5%72.6%87.2%
Operating Margin59.8%69.5%67.7%64.2%
Net Margin24.9%50.3%63.1%59.2%

Why This Stock

Basic MaterialsRevenue growth 18.8%Profit margin 46.2%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 93/100Score impact: -1.4pt

Volume
98
954K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$272M/day
Float
80
0K shares
Mkt Cap
84
$18.7B
Range
100
114% spread
Composite Liquidity Score93/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$92.01$129.6934%Moderate
2022$84.54$147.7054.4%Wide
2023$101.82$147.8236.9%Wide
2024$100.55$155.1042.7%Wide
2025$131.73$235.5256.5%Wide
3-Year Range
80.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
114.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.