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44

ADAMG

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Adamas Trust, Inc. - 9.125% Senior Notes Due 2030

Conservative #780Aggressive #635Low RiskFโ†‘ 43pt
$25.33-0.08%
Day High$25.35
Day Low$25.32
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$2.3B
52W Low $2352W High $25
Market Cap
$2.3B
P/E Ratio
4.9
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
12.0%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
340.3%
Profit Margin
19.9%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
7.71

Why This Score

ADAMG scores 44.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 4.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (2.2% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 7.71) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -25.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ADAMG would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score44.4
Fundamental Score64.8
ML Score68.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
2.0
6 Month
2.3
Primary
1 Year
2.4

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage
2 quality flags detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Low FCF/NI ratio (0.21) with 19.9% net margin โ€” reported earnings may not be cash-backed
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 7.7x โ€” balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
42
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, very low dollar volume
Base
40.4
SHAP
+4.0
Final
44.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

72AVG
Value93
Quality52
Growth82
Stability71
Investment61

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)64.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)61.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-8.1% to -2.0%
Medium-term
-10.9% to -2.2%
Long-term
-13.7% to -2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 68

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score42.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 โ€” Topping
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+3.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.63)
Relative Strength vs Sector+0.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.4)
Momentum Quality+0.093
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
23%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P72
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P97
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P85
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 65 relative to sector peers65/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 68th percentileP68
Blended score: 80% fundamental (65) + 20% ML (68) = 65.465.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.0%; Drawdown 2% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +4.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Low FCF/NI ratio (0.21) with 19.9% net margin โ€” reported earnings may not be cash-backed; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 7.7x โ€” balance sheet riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #222 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ADAMG44.44.912.0%19.9%$2.3B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Adamas Trust, Inc. acquires, invests in, finances, and manages mortgage-related single-family and multi-family residential assets in the United States. The company's targeted residential loans, including business purpose loans; agency RMBS; non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS); structured multi-family property investments, such as preferred equity in, and mezzanine loans to owners of multi-family properties; and other mortgage-, residential housing- and credit-related assets and strategic investments; and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). It also owns and manages single-family rental properties. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Adamas Trust, Inc. was formerly known as New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. and changed its name to Adamas Trust, Inc. in September 2025. Adamas Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

CEO
Jason T. Serrano
Employees
70
Beta
1.17
Industry
Financial - Mortgages
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
61.5
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-0.7%
High: $25.5
From 52W Low
+11.6%
Low: $22.7
Moving Averages
10-Day
$25.30
Above
20-Day
$25.30
Above
50-Day
$25.10
Above
200-Day
$24.80
Above
60-Day Support
$24.7
60-Day Resistance
$25.39
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 โ€” ToppingScore: 23/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+2.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.87%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.57x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
81
Confidence: 70%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
$23.86
Stop Entry Now Target
$26.09
No Entry
โ€”
No new entry โ€” distribution phase
Exit Target
$25.33
Reduce at current price ($25.33)
Stop Level
$24.60
Below SMA50 ($24.6)

Stage 3 distribution โ€” institutional selling pressure is building. Avoid new positions. If already holding, consider reducing and tightening stops below SMA50.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$179M$227M$157M$187M
Gross Profit$147M$102M$52M$91M
Operating Income$176M$39M$4M$38M
Net Income$54M$45M$9M$42M
EPS (Diluted)$0.45$0.36$-0.04$0.33
Gross Margin82.5%45.2%33.4%48.4%
Operating Margin98.4%17.4%2.7%20.1%
Net Margin29.9%19.8%5.4%22.5%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 4.9Revenue growth 12.0%Profit margin 19.9%

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -19.8pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
22K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$556K/day
Float
0
84M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$2.3B
Range
0
12% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumevery low dollar volumesideways trading
Free Float
93.3%
Outstanding Shares
90M
Bid-Ask Spread
12.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.