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VIAV

💻 Technology

Viavi Solutions Inc.

Conservative #504Aggressive #32Moderate RiskLow 34ML↑ 26pt
$30.85+5.90%
Day High$31.42
Day Low$29.07
Volume7.7M
Mkt Cap$7.1B
52W Low $852W High $31
Market Cap
$6.1B
P/E Ratio
26.1
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
8.4%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
234.9%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.89

Why This Score

VIAV scores 52.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (92/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (135%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (15.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -10.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, VIAV would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score52.1
Fundamental Score48.3
ML Score92.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
65.8
6 Month
73.5
Primary
1 Year
77.4

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
88
Grade A
Base
54.1
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.5
Conviction
-1.5
Divergence
-4.3
Final
52.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

63AVG
Value55
Quality55
Growth90
Stability60
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)52.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)86.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)57.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.5% to +6.0%
Medium-term
+3.1% to +10.1%
Long-term
+4.8% to +14.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 92

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.4/100
Target Upside-17.6%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score58.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.4%
6M Momentum+1.3%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+2.1%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.98)
Relative Strength vs Sector+131.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.100
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
8%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P44
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P46
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P31
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 51 relative to sector peers51/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 77th percentileP77
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (51.3) + 9% ML (76.8) + SHAP(+2.4) = 56.0—
Factor quality: +1.5pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 15.3%. Max drawdown 19% (-4.2 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -2.8pt (135% 12m momentum)—
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($6.1B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.5pt (conviction=34)—
Divergence penalty: -2.3pt (ML 26pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -18 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Earnings growth (235%) far exceeds revenue growth (8.4%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 28x — earnings quality suspectFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #116 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VIAV52.126.18.4%3.2%$6.1B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy19 analysts
Buy: 15Hold: 3Sell: 1
Price Target
$23consensus
Low $11Median $26High $28
-26.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Viavi Solutions Inc. provides network test, monitoring, and assurance solutions to communications service providers, enterprises, network equipment manufacturers, original equipment manufacturers, government, and avionics customers worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Network Enablement (NE), Service Enablement (SE), and Optical Security and Performance Products (OSP) segments. The NE segment offers testing solutions that access the network to perform build-out and maintenance tasks. This segment provides solutions that include instruments, software, and services to design, build, activate, certify, troubleshoot, and optimize networks; and instrumentation for communication and safety. It also offers support and professional services, such as repair, calibration, software support, and technical assistance for the products; and system integration projects, including project management, installation, and implementation, as well as product and technology training, and consulting services. The SE segment provides embedded systems and enterprise performance management solutions for communication service providers, enterprises, and cloud operators with visibility into network, service, and application data. Its solutions include instruments, microprobes, and software, which monitor, collect, and analyze network data to reveal the actual customer experience and to identify opportunities for new revenue streams and network optimization. The OSP segment offers optical products for anti-counterfeiting, consumer and industrial, government, automotive, and industrial markets. The company was formerly known as JDS Uniphase Corporation and changed its name to Viavi Solutions Inc. in August 2015. Viavi Solutions Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.

CEO
Oleg Khaykin
Employees
3,600
Beta
0.96
Industry
Communication Equipment
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
84.0
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.8%
High: $31.42
From 52W Low
+280.9%
Low: $8.1
Moving Averages
10-Day
$27.40
Above
20-Day
$26.30
Above
50-Day
$21.50
Above
200-Day
$14.50
Above
60-Day Support
$16.69
60-Day Resistance
$31.42
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 75/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+112.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+26.68%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.1x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-11)

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$369M$299M$291M$285M
Gross Profit$204M$168M$162M$160M
Operating Income$30M$22M$17M$24M
Net Income$-48M$-21M$8M$20M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.21$-0.10$0.04$0.09
Gross Margin55.3%56.0%55.8%56.0%
Operating Margin8.1%7.4%6.0%8.4%
Net Margin-12.9%-7.2%2.8%6.8%

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade A — 88/100Score impact: -24.1pt

Volume
100
4.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$116M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
71
$6.1B
Range
100
250% spread
Composite Liquidity Score88/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$14.68$18.1421.1%Narrow
2022$9.99$18.1457.9%Wide
2023$7.26$12.1950.8%Wide
2024$6.60$11.4954.1%Wide
2025$8.10$19.7683.7%Wide
3-Year Range
99.8%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
250.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.