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TFSL

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

TFS Financial Corporation

Conservative #412Aggressive #680Low RiskLow 25MLโ†‘ 37pt
$14.34-1.08%
Day High$14.65
Day Low$14.31
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$4.0B
52W Low $1152W High $15
Market Cap
$4.1B
P/E Ratio
46.2
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
4.4%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
14.3%
Profit Margin
11.3%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
2.60

Why This Score

TFSL scores 57.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (5.3% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (23%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated valuation at 46.2x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.60) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-4.6 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score57.8
Fundamental Score58.7
ML Score57.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
65.6
6 Month
73.3
Primary
1 Year
77.2

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.053 vol with only 4.4% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
56
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
78
Grade Brange bound
Base
53.8
SHAP
+3.5
Factors
+0.6
Final
57.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)35.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.5% to +3.6%
Medium-term
-3.5% to +5.8%
Long-term
-4.4% to +8.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 57

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.3/100
Target Upside+4.9%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score51.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+12.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.46)
Relative Strength vs Sector+14.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.4)
Momentum Quality+0.218
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P50
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P9
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P33
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 39 relative to sector peers39/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 77th percentileP77
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (39.1) + 9% ML (76.6) + SHAP(+5.0) = 47.5โ€”
Factor quality: +0.8pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.3%. Stability bonus of +11.3 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.2B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -2.4pt (conviction=25)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -4.2pt (ML 37pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -9 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: False stability: 0.1 vol with only 4.4% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentals; High leverage: D/E ratio of 2.6x โ€” elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #134 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TFSL57.846.24.4%11.3%$4.1B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
ACT84.48.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.4B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.8B
FFIN77.418.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
NMIH77.07.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$16.0B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.6B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold4 analysts
Buy: 1Hold: 3
Price Target
$15consensus
Low $15Median $15High $15
+4.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

TFS Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides retail consumer banking services in the United States. Its deposit products include savings, money market, checking, individual retirement, and other qualified plan accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. The company also provides residential real estate mortgage loans, residential construction loans, and home equity loans and lines of credit, as well as purchase mortgages and first mortgage refinance loans. In addition, it offers escrow and settlement services. The company provides its products and services through its main office in Cleveland, Ohio; and 37 full-service branches and 7 loan production offices located throughout the states of Ohio and Florida. The company was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. TFS Financial Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Third Federal Savings and Loan Association of Cleveland, MHC.

CEO
Marc A. Stefanski
Employees
919
Beta
0.74
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
47.2
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7%
High: $15.42
From 52W Low
+27.1%
Low: $11.29
Moving Averages
10-Day
$14.70
Below
20-Day
$14.70
Below
50-Day
$14.30
Above
200-Day
$13.60
Above
60-Day Support
$13.21
60-Day Resistance
$15.42
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 64/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+5.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.58%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
89
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$206M$207M$198M$193M
Gross Profit$85M$84M$81M$78M
Operating Income$28M$32M$27M$27M
Net Income$22M$26M$22M$21M
EPS (Diluted)$0.08$0.09$0.08$0.07
Gross Margin41.2%40.8%40.6%40.2%
Operating Margin13.8%15.7%13.8%13.7%
Net Margin10.8%12.5%10.8%10.9%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesProfit margin 11.3%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 78/100Score impact: +14.2pt

Volume
88
698K avg/day
Dollar Vol
60
$10M/day
Float
100
279M shares
Mkt Cap
65
$4.1B
Range
66
37% spread
Composite Liquidity Score78/100
FDCBA
range bound

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Range-BoundSideways: 51/100
Range-Bound Stock

This stock has traded in a compressed range for 3 of the last 5 years (3-year range: 32.6%). Range-bound stocks may indicate limited upside potential. A -2.6pt penalty has been applied.

YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$16.95$22.5428.3%Moderate
2022$12.45$18.4338.7%Wide
2023$10.97$15.2532.6%Moderate
2024$11.70$15.0024.7%Narrow
2025$11.29$14.7326.4%Moderate
3-Year Range
32.6%
Narrow Years
3 / 5
Sideways Penalty
-2.6pt

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
stagnation flagrange bound

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.5%
Outstanding Shares
281M
Bid-Ask Spread
37.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.