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37

SWIM

🏭 Industrials

Latham Group, Inc.

Conservative #940Aggressive #1309Low RiskHigh 86
$6.79-3.55%
Day High$7.12
Day Low$6.69
Volume3.9M
Mkt Cap$792M
52W Low $552W High $8
Market Cap
$805M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-10.2%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-647.9%
Profit Margin
-2.1%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.77

Why This Score

SWIM scores 36.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (12%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (86/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. SWIM's rank of #940 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score36.9
Fundamental Score37.4
ML Score25.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
47.3
6 Month
52.9
Primary
1 Year
55.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (519.4%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
56
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
68
Grade Blow dollar volume
Base
32.9
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+1.0
Conviction
+1.9
Final
36.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)37.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)50.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-7.1% to -0.2%
Medium-term
-10.5% to -0.2%
Long-term
-14.0% to -0.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 25

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.3/100
Target Upside+17.4%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score52.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+29.5%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.66)
Relative Strength vs Sector+0.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.3)
Momentum Quality+0.091
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
32%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P7
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P72
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P47
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 50 relative to sector peers50/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 56th percentileP56
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (49.5) + 9% ML (54.7) + SHAP(+1.2) = 51.1
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 9.3%. Max drawdown 22% (-5.5 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.8B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.9pt (conviction=86)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (519.4%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #93 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SWIM36.9N/A-10.2%-2.1%$805M
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average45.264.519.0%-48.2%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy8 analysts
Buy: 4Hold: 2Sell: 2
Price Target
$8consensus
Low $7Median $8High $9
+16.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Latham Group, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets in-ground residential swimming pools in North America, Australia, and New Zealand. It offers a portfolio of pools and related products, including in-ground swimming pools, pool covers, and pool liners. The company was formerly known as Latham Topco, Inc. and changed its name to Latham Group, Inc. in March 2021. Latham Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Latham, New York.

CEO
Sean Gadd
Employees
1,800
Beta
1.71
Industry
Construction
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
58.6
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-19.7%
High: $8.46
From 52W Low
+48.9%
Low: $4.56
Moving Averages
10-Day
$6.80
Below
20-Day
$6.60
Above
50-Day
$6.50
Above
200-Day
$6.90
Below
60-Day Support
$6.1
60-Day Resistance
$7.39
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 23/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-1.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.21%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.97x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
1
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$162M$173M$111M$87M
Gross Profit$57M$64M$33M$21M
Operating Income$22M$25M$-5M$-13M
Net Income$8M$16M$-6M$-29M
EPS (Diluted)$0.07$0.13$-0.05$-0.25
Gross Margin35.4%37.1%29.5%24.6%
Operating Margin13.3%14.3%-4.4%-14.9%
Net Margin5.0%9.3%-5.4%-33.4%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade B — 68/100Score impact: +0.7pt

Volume
87
682K avg/day
Dollar Vol
44
$5M/day
Float
79
49M shares
Mkt Cap
36
$805M
Range
100
86% spread
Composite Liquidity Score68/100
FDCBA
low dollar volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$12.69$34.7393%Wide
2022$2.75$26.06161.8%Wide
2023$2.04$4.7780.4%Wide
2024$2.11$8.41119.8%Wide
2025$4.56$8.4659.9%Wide
3-Year Range
122.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.08x dampening
weinstein decliningrevenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
42.3%
Outstanding Shares
117M
Bid-Ask Spread
86.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.