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48

APOG

🏭 Industrials

Apogee Enterprises, Inc.

Conservative #618Aggressive #875Low RiskHigh 91
$39.88-0.87%
Day High$40.39
Day Low$39.45
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$858M
52W Low $3152W High $50
Market Cap
$883M
P/E Ratio
21.9
Sector avg: 64.5
Rev Growth
-3.9%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-14.6%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.61

Why This Score

APOG scores 48.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (91/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score48.1
Fundamental Score46.0
ML Score63.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
57.6
6 Month
64.4
Primary
1 Year
67.8

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
57
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
57
Grade C
Base
44.4
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.5
Divergence
-0.3
Final
48.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)41.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)56.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.6% to +3.5%
Medium-term
-3.6% to +5.6%
Long-term
-4.7% to +7.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 63

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+75.8%
Coverage6 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-6.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.39)
Relative Strength vs Sector-22.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.5)
Momentum Quality-0.090
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
35%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P19
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P53
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P81
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 72 relative to sector peers72/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 67th percentileP67
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (71.9) + 9% ML (67.3) + SHAP(+3.1) = 74.6
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 7.7%. Max drawdown 20% (-4.8 pts). Price momentum -11% (-1.2 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.5pt (conviction=91)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-141.7%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #59 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
APOG48.121.9-3.9%2.9%$883M
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average45.264.519.0%-48.2%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold6 analysts
Buy: 1Hold: 4Sell: 1
Price Target
$71consensus
Low $46Median $71High $95
+76.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Apogee Enterprises, Inc. designs and develops glass and metal products and services in the United States, Canada, and Brazil. The company operates in four segments: Architectural Framing Systems, Architectural Glass, Architectural Services, and Large-Scale Optical Technologies (LSO). The Architectural Framing Systems segment designs, engineers, fabricates, and finishes the aluminum frames used in customized aluminum and glass window; curtain wall; storefront; and entrance systems, such as the outside skin and entrances of commercial, institutional, and multi-family residential buildings. The Architectural Glass segment fabricates coated and high-performance glass used in customized window and wall systems, including the outside skin of commercial, institutional, and multi-family residential buildings. The Architectural Services segment offers full-service installation of the walls of glass, windows, and other curtain wall products making up the outside skin of commercial and institutional buildings. The LSO segment manufactures value-added glass and acrylic products for framing and display applications. The company's products and services are primarily used in commercial buildings, such as office buildings, hotels, and retail centers; and institutional buildings comprising education facilities, health care facilities, and government buildings, as well as multi-family residential buildings. It markets its architectural products and services through direct sales force, independent sales representatives, and distributors to glazing subcontractors and general contractors; and value-added glass and acrylics through retail chains, picture-framing shops, and independent distributors to museums, galleries, and other customers. The company was incorporated in 1949 and is based in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

CEO
Donald A. Nolan
Employees
4,500
Beta
1.09
Industry
Construction
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
43.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-20.2%
High: $49.99
From 52W Low
+29.7%
Low: $30.75
Moving Averages
10-Day
$40.90
Below
20-Day
$40.30
Below
50-Day
$38.60
Above
200-Day
$39.90
Below
60-Day Support
$30.75
60-Day Resistance
$43.36
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 24/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-0.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-5.22%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.53x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
1
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$349M$358M$347M$346M
Gross Profit$86M$86M$82M$77M
Operating Income$30M$31M$7M$6M
Net Income$17M$24M$-3M$2M
EPS (Diluted)$0.77$1.10$-0.13$0.11
Gross Margin24.8%23.9%23.7%22.3%
Operating Margin8.7%8.7%2.0%1.8%
Net Margin4.7%6.6%-0.8%0.7%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsP/E ratio of 21.9Valuation below sector median (P/E 21.9)

Tradability FilterGrade C — 57/100Score impact: -11.8pt

Volume
55
253K avg/day
Dollar Vol
60
$10M/day
Float
51
21M shares
Mkt Cap
37
$883M
Range
91
63% spread
Composite Liquidity Score57/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$33.88$49.5837.6%Wide
2022$35.96$50.4533.5%Moderate
2023$36.62$55.1340.3%Wide
2024$51.15$87.9352.9%Wide
2025$32.77$72.9576%Wide
3-Year Range
91.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
97.4%
Outstanding Shares
22M
Bid-Ask Spread
63.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.