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33

WLFC

🏭 Industrials

Willis Lease Finance Corporation

Conservative #1044Aggressive #407Moderate RiskHigh 90
$204.32-0.45%
Day High$206.66
Day Low$202.22
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$1.4B
52W Low $11452W High $211
Market Cap
$1.4B
P/E Ratio
12.5
Sector avg: 64.5
Rev Growth
36.0%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
148.1%
Profit Margin
17.9%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
3.14

Why This Score

WLFC scores 32.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 19.5% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 12.5x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (90/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (13.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 3.14) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -27.6 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, WLFC would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score32.5
Fundamental Score49.6
ML Score82.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
51.2
6 Month
57.3
Primary
1 Year
60.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 3.1x — balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
38
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low float, low volume
Base
31.1
SHAP
+2.2
Factors
+0.4
Conviction
+1.4
Divergence
-2.6
Final
32.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)64.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)62.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.7% to +1.4%
Medium-term
-3.5% to +2.5%
Long-term
-4.4% to +3.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 82

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score38.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-35.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.05)
Relative Strength vs Sector-13.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.1)
Momentum Quality-0.014
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P91
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P65
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P4
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 55 relative to sector peers55/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 60th percentileP60
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (55.1) + 9% ML (60.3) + SHAP(+3.7) = 59.3
Factor quality: +0.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 13.5%. Max drawdown 22% (-5.6 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.4B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.4pt (conviction=90)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -14 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-126.2%) — earnings quality concern; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 3.1x — balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #102 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
WLFC32.512.536.0%17.9%$1.4B
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average45.264.519.0%-48.2%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for WLFC.

Company Overviewvia FMP

Willis Lease Finance Corporation operates as a lessor and servicer of commercial aircraft and aircraft engines worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Leasing and Related Operations, and Spare Parts Sales. The Leasing and Related Operations segment engages in acquiring and leasing commercial aircraft, aircraft engines, and other aircraft equipment, as well as the purchase and resale of commercial aircraft engines and other aircraft equipment, and other related businesses. The Spare Parts Sales segment purchases and resells after-market engine parts, whole engines, engine modules, and portable aircraft components. The company also focuses on engine management and consulting business. It serves commercial aircraft operators, as well as maintenance, repair, and overhaul organizations. As of December 31, 2021, it had a total lease portfolio of 304 engines, 12 aircraft, one marine vessel, and other leased parts and equipment, and with 76 lessees in 40 countries; and managed a total lease portfolio of 475 engines, aircraft, and related equipment for other parties. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Coconut Creek, Florida.

CEO
Austin Chandler Willis
Employees
445
Beta
0.76
Industry
Rental & Leasing Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
63.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-3.2%
High: $211
From 52W Low
+79.2%
Low: $114.01
Moving Averages
10-Day
$200.40
Above
20-Day
$195.60
Above
50-Day
$169.90
Above
200-Day
$146.10
Above
60-Day Support
$117.9
60-Day Resistance
$207.05
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 47/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+39.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.46%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.61x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
36
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$180M$196M$158M$153M
Gross Profit$168M$131M$112M$116M
Operating Income$38M$28M$24M$29M
Net Income$24M$60M$17M$21M
EPS (Diluted)$3.25$8.43$2.21$2.81
Gross Margin93.4%67.1%71.0%75.9%
Operating Margin21.1%14.5%15.2%19.2%
Net Margin13.5%30.9%10.7%13.8%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsP/E ratio of 12.5Revenue growth 36.0%Profit margin 17.9%Valuation below sector median (P/E 12.5)

Tradability FilterGrade F — 0/100Score impact: -28.5pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
50K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$10M/day
Float
0
2M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$1.4B
Range
0
85% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low floatlow volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$31.71$47.7840.4%Wide
2022$30.22$61.0167.5%Wide
2023$37.01$65.1955.1%Wide
2024$45.32$235.43135.4%Wide
2025$114.01$229.6767.3%Wide
3-Year Range
145.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
36.0%
Outstanding Shares
7M
Bid-Ask Spread
85.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.