Back to Dashboard
20

AEBI

🏭 Industrials

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG

Conservative #1305Aggressive #1179Moderate RiskLow 37ML↑ 24pt
$14.91+1.36%
Day High$14.94
Day Low$14.32
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$1.2B
52W Low $952W High $33
Market Cap
$1.2B
P/E Ratio
831.1
Sector avg: 64.5
Rev Growth
6.9%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
174.0%
Profit Margin
0.2%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
1.00

Why This Score

AEBI scores 20.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 831.1x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (20.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.00) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-9.7 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score20.2
Fundamental Score30.6
ML Score1.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
55.7
6 Month
62.3
Primary
1 Year
65.6

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (2728.7%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
51
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
44
Grade Clow volume, low dollar volume
Base
19.7
SHAP
+3.4
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
-1.3
Divergence
-2.2
Final
20.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)41.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage72%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.4% to +1.7%
Medium-term
-3.0% to +3.0%
Long-term
-3.8% to +4.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 1

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+5.1%
Coverage2 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score50.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (0.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector-11.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality+0.000
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P54
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P0
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P16
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 41 relative to sector peers41/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 65th percentileP65
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (41.3) + 9% ML (65.4) + SHAP(+3.4) = 46.8
Factor quality: +0.5pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 20.0%Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.2B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.2pt (conviction=37)
Divergence penalty: -2.1pt (ML 24pt higher)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -23 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Earnings growth (174%) far exceeds revenue growth (6.9%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 25x — earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (2728.7%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #126 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AEBI20.2831.16.9%0.2%$1.2B
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average45.264.519.0%-48.2%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy2 analysts
Buy: 2
Price Target
$16consensus
Low $15Median $16High $17
+5.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Develops and manufactures specialty-purpose vehicles and attachments for snow clearance, de‑icing, sweeping, airport operations, and agricultural applications. Merged with The Shyft Group to create a global specialty vehicle leader.

CEO
Barend Fruithof
Employees
3,000
Beta
-2.11
Industry
General Transportation
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
47.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-82.1%
High: $83.26
From 52W Low
+67.3%
Low: $8.91
Moving Averages
10-Day
$15.20
Below
20-Day
$15.10
Below
50-Day
$14.30
Above
200-Day
N/A
60-Day Support
$11.53
60-Day Resistance
$15.96

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q2 2024
Revenue$471M$221M$249M$266M
Gross Profit$94M$45M$53M$57M
Operating Income$17M$11M$14M$19M
Net Income$1M$-2M$2M$8M
EPS (Diluted)$0.02$-0.02$0.03$0.11
Gross Margin20.0%20.5%21.4%21.5%
Operating Margin3.7%5.0%5.8%7.3%
Net Margin0.3%-0.8%0.8%3.1%

Why This Stock

Industrials

Tradability FilterGrade C — 44/100Score impact: -11.9pt

Volume
47
191K avg/day
Dollar Vol
23
$3M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
43
$1.2B
Range
100
270% spread
Composite Liquidity Score44/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volume

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
270.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.