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23

ULCC

🏭 Industrials

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #1266Aggressive #846Moderate RiskMixed 41ML↑ 30pt
$4.67+0.65%
Day High$4.69
Day Low$4.51
Volume2.8M
Mkt Cap$1.1B
52W Low $352W High $8
Market Cap
$1.2B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-1.4%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-261.2%
Profit Margin
-3.7%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
19.42

Why This Score

ULCC scores 23.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (21.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 19.42) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -15.5 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ULCC would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score23.0
Fundamental Score19.6
ML Score89.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
53.6
6 Month
59.9
Primary
1 Year
63.0

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 19.4x — balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.8%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
29
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
85
Grade A
Base
33.5
SHAP
-2.8
Factors
+1.3
Conviction
-0.9
Divergence
-8.2
Final
23.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)25.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)46.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)57.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.4% to +3.7%
Medium-term
-3.3% to +6.1%
Long-term
-4.1% to +8.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 89

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score29.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-34.9%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.36)
Relative Strength vs Sector-37.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.2)
Momentum Quality-0.176
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P29
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P72
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P4
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 33 relative to sector peers33/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 63th percentileP63
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: -2.8pt (features diverge from model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (33.4) + 9% ML (61.3) + SHAP(-2.8) = 33.2—
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 21.0%. Max drawdown 31% (-9.3 pts). Price momentum -26% (-4.1 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.2B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -0.9pt (conviction=41)—
Divergence penalty: -2.9pt (ML 30pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -14 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-123.4%) — earnings quality concern; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 19.4x — balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #123 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ULCC23.0N/A-1.4%-3.7%$1.2B
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average45.264.519.0%-48.2%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold13 analysts
Buy: 3Hold: 8Sell: 2
Price Target
$6consensus
Low $4Median $6High $8
+28.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., a low-fare airline company, provides air transportation for passengers. The company operates an airline that serves approximately 120 airports throughout the United States and international destinations in the Americas. It offers its services through direct distribution channels, including its website, mobile app, and call center. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a fleet of 110 Airbus single-aisle aircraft comprising, 16 A320ceos, 73 A320neos, and 21 A321ceos. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

CEO
James G. Dempsey
Employees
7,906
Beta
2.56
Industry
Airlines, Airports & Air Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
32.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-40.1%
High: $7.8
From 52W Low
+61.6%
Low: $2.89
Moving Averages
10-Day
$5.10
Below
20-Day
$5.30
Below
50-Day
$5.10
Below
200-Day
$4.50
Above
60-Day Support
$4.41
60-Day Resistance
$6.66
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 30/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+3.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.57%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.96x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
60
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$997M$886M$929M$912M
Gross Profit$464M$402M$5M$451M
Operating Income$49M$-77M$-75M$-46M
Net Income$53M$-77M$-70M$-43M
EPS (Diluted)$0.23$-0.34$-0.31$-0.19
Gross Margin46.5%45.4%0.5%49.5%
Operating Margin4.9%-8.7%-8.1%-5.0%
Net Margin5.3%-8.7%-7.5%-4.7%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade A — 85/100Score impact: -32.1pt

Volume
100
4.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
79
$19M/day
Float
94
86M shares
Mkt Cap
42
$1.2B
Range
100
179% spread
Composite Liquidity Score85/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$12.62$22.7057.1%Wide
2022$8.19$15.2560.2%Wide
2023$3.19$14.10126.2%Wide
2024$2.79$8.3399.6%Wide
2025$2.89$10.26112.1%Wide
3-Year Range
133.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
37.5%
Outstanding Shares
228M
Bid-Ask Spread
179.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.