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28

SPT

💻 Technology

Sprout Social, Inc.

Conservative #1170Aggressive #1144High RiskLow 36ML↑ 32pt
$6.76-0.15%
Day High$6.81
Day Low$6.44
Volume1.5M
Mkt Cap$400M
52W Low $652W High $29
Market Cap
$420M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
21.7%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
6.7%
Profit Margin
-10.6%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.31

Why This Score

SPT scores 27.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (10.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.9 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score27.7
Fundamental Score31.3
ML Score15.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
72.3
6 Month
80.8
Primary
1 Year
85.1

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
55
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
73
Grade Bsmall cap
Base
26.0
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.4
Conviction
-1.3
Divergence
-0.2
Final
27.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)57.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)26.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.8% to +8.9%
Medium-term
+6.4% to +14.1%
Long-term
+9.9% to +20.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 15

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+500.0%
Coverage16 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.7%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-18.3%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.75)
Relative Strength vs Sector-76.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.237
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
14%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P76
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P75
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 54 relative to sector peers54/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (54.1) + 9% ML (83.8) + SHAP(+1.8) = 58.5—
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)—
Market cap adjustment: -20.0 points ($0.4B market cap)-20.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.3pt (conviction=36)—
Divergence penalty: -3.3pt (ML 32pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 10.6%. Max drawdown 67% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -73% (-10.0 pts)High
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (177.9%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #256 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SPT27.7N/A21.7%-10.6%$420M
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy16 analysts
Buy: 9Hold: 6Sell: 1
Price Target
$57consensus
Low $21Median $43High $150
+749.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Sprout Social, Inc. designs, develops, and operates a web-based social media management platform in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It provides cloud software that brings together social messaging, data, and workflows in a unified system of record, intelligence, and action. The company offers provides various integrated tools in a range of functions comprising social engagement/response, publishing, reporting and analytics, social listening and business intelligence, reputation management, employee advocacy, and automation and workflows. Its tools serve a range of use-cases within its customers' organizations, including social and community management, public relations, marketing, customer service and care, commerce, sales and customer acquisition, recruiting and hiring, product development, and business strategy. The company also offers professional services, which primarily consist of consulting and training services. It serves approximately more than 31,000 customers across small-and-medium-sized businesses, mid-market companies, enterprises, marketing agencies, government, non-profit, and educational institutions. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

CEO
Ryan Paul Barretto
Employees
1,322
Beta
0.89
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
32.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-76.7%
High: $29.01
From 52W Low
+5.1%
Low: $6.43
Moving Averages
10-Day
$7.00
Below
20-Day
$7.70
Below
50-Day
$9.40
Below
200-Day
$14.10
Below
60-Day Support
$6.43
60-Day Resistance
$12.06
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-52.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-23.04%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.25x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$116M$112M$109M$107M
Gross Profit$90M$87M$84M$84M
Operating Income$-9M$-12M$-11M$-14M
Net Income$-9M$-12M$-11M$-14M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.16$-0.21$-0.19$-0.25
Gross Margin77.7%77.7%77.3%78.1%
Operating Margin-7.9%-11.0%-10.2%-12.8%
Net Margin-8.1%-10.7%-10.3%-13.5%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 21.7%Valuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade B — 73/100Score impact: -10.1pt

Volume
100
1.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
57
$8M/day
Float
80
51M shares
Mkt Cap
18
$420M
Range
100
350% spread
Composite Liquidity Score73/100
FDCBA
small cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$49.45$145.4298.5%Wide
2022$38.39$91.1481.4%Wide
2023$37.00$74.0766.8%Wide
2024$25.05$68.4192.8%Wide
2025$9.16$35.18117.4%Wide
3-Year Range
156%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
86.4%
Outstanding Shares
59M
Bid-Ask Spread
350.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.