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SMTC

💻 Technology

Semtech Corporation

Conservative #968Aggressive #925Low RiskLow 26ML↑ 37pt
$92.16+2.21%
Day High$93.91
Day Low$90.47
Volume1.6M
Mkt Cap$8.5B
52W Low $2452W High $94
Market Cap
$8.1B
P/E Ratio
155.6
Sector avg: 87.4
Rev Growth
4.7%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
85.2%
Profit Margin
-17.8%
Sector avg: -109.6%
Debt/Equity
1.03

Why This Score

SMTC scores 36.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (128%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 155.6x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (11.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.03) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-9.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score36.1
Fundamental Score48.7
ML Score12.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.6
6 Month
74.4
Primary
1 Year
78.3

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Speculative Classification
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
61
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
96
Grade A
Base
35.4
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-3.3
Final
36.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

60AVG
Value40
Quality40
Growth90
Stability60
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)40.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)92.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)58.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.4% to +8.2%
Medium-term
+6.0% to +13.4%
Long-term
+8.6% to +18.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 12

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score71.1/100
Target Upside-14.0%
Coverage32 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score60.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.3%
6M Momentum+0.5%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+78.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.39)
Relative Strength vs Sector+124.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.164
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P31
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P6
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P21
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 41 relative to sector peers41/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 78th percentileP78
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (41.2) + 9% ML (78.1) + SHAP(+3.7) = 48.2—
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 11.0%. Max drawdown 9% (-0.5 pts)Low
Momentum mean-reversion: -2.4pt (128% 12m momentum)—
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($8.1B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -2.3pt (conviction=26)—
Divergence penalty: -4.1pt (ML 37pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -9 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (5.5%) exceeds net margin (-17.8%) by 23pp — possible write-down; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 4.7% (original: 5.3%). Semiconductors has ~18% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~45%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #217 of 290 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SMTC36.1155.64.7%-17.8%$8.1B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.414.8%-109.6%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy32 analysts
Buy: 27Hold: 5
Price Target
$75consensus
Low $53Median $79High $90
-18.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Semtech Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products and advanced algorithms. It provides signal integrity products, including a portfolio of optical data communications and video transport products used in various infrastructure, and industrial applications; a portfolio of integrated circuits for data centers, enterprise networks, passive optical networks, wireless base station optical transceivers, and high-speed interface applications; and video products for broadcast applications, as well as video-over-IP technology for professional audio video applications. The company also offers protection products, such as filter and termination devices that are integrated with the transient voltage suppressor devices, which protect electronic systems from voltage spikes; and wireless and sensing products comprising a portfolio of specialized radio frequency products used in various industrial, medical, and communications applications, as well as specialized sensing products used in industrial and consumer applications. In addition, it provides power products consisting of switching voltage regulators, combination switching and linear regulators, smart regulators, isolated switches, and wireless charging that control, alter, regulate, and condition the power within electronic systems. The company serves original equipment manufacturers and their suppliers in the enterprise computing, communications, and consumer and industrial end-markets. It sells its products directly, as well as through independent sales representative firms and independent distributors in North America, Europe, Asia- Pacific, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in Camarillo, California.

CEO
Hong Q. Hou
Employees
1,838
Beta
2.02
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
75.5
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.9%
High: $93.91
From 52W Low
+283.2%
Low: $24.05
Moving Averages
10-Day
$87.80
Above
20-Day
$86.30
Above
50-Day
$79.90
Above
200-Day
$62.30
Above
60-Day Support
$66.75
60-Day Resistance
$93.91
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+47.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+28.25%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.83x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$267M$258M$251M$251M
Gross Profit$138M$134M$131M$131M
Operating Income$32M$-16M$36M$21M
Net Income$-3M$-27M$19M$39M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.03$-0.31$0.22$0.43
Gross Margin51.9%52.1%52.3%52.0%
Operating Margin11.9%-6.3%14.3%8.5%
Net Margin-1.1%-10.5%7.7%15.6%

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade A — 96/100Score impact: -5.5pt

Volume
100
1.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$140M/day
Float
97
92M shares
Mkt Cap
75
$8.1B
Range
100
285% spread
Composite Liquidity Score96/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$57.97$94.9248.3%Wide
2022$25.29$92.14113.9%Wide
2023$13.13$35.1891.3%Wide
2024$18.16$70.27117.9%Wide
2025$24.05$81.32108.7%Wide
3-Year Range
144.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
99.4%
Outstanding Shares
93M
Bid-Ask Spread
285.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.