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57

SKWD

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.

Conservative #422Aggressive #244Moderate Risk
$46.47+3.27%
Day High$47.26
Day Low$44.65
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$1.9B
52W Low $4252W High $65
Market Cap
$1.9B
P/E Ratio
13.4
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
28.2%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
38.2%
Profit Margin
10.6%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.12

Why This Score

SKWD scores 57.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 16.1% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 13.4x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (92/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. SKWD's rank of #422 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score57.6
Fundamental Score52.7
ML Score67.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
78.0
6 Month
87.2
Primary
1 Year
91.8

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
59
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
73
Grade B
Base
53.6
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+0.9
Conviction
+1.5
Final
57.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

72AVG
Value80
Quality44
Growth97
Stability75
Investment66

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)75.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.1% to +8.1%
Medium-term
+5.3% to +12.8%
Long-term
+8.2% to +18.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 67

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.5/100
Target Upside+43.9%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score58.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-6.7%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.49)
Relative Strength vs Sector-21.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.5)
Momentum Quality-0.092
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
8%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P85
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P58
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P90
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.4ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 53 relative to sector peers53/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 67th percentileP67
Blended score: 80% fundamental (53) + 20% ML (67) = 55.655.6
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 30% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.7pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.5pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #137 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SKWD57.613.428.2%10.6%$1.9B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, engages in underwriting commercial property and casualty insurance coverages in the United States. The company offers general liability, excess liability, professional liability, commercial auto, group accident and health, property, surety, and workers' compensation insurance products. Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

CEO
Kirby Allen Hill
Employees
580
Beta
0.54
Industry
Insurance - Property & Casualty
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
58.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-28.6%
High: $65.05
From 52W Low
+9.5%
Low: $42.45
Moving Averages
10-Day
$45.90
Above
20-Day
$45.20
Above
50-Day
$46.90
Below
200-Day
$50.30
Below
60-Day Support
$42.45
60-Day Resistance
$53.09
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 6/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-7.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-3.13%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.15x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
41
Confidence: 90%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-24)

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$386M$382M$321M$331M
Gross Profit$309M$119M$95M$99M
Operating Income$55M$61M$50M$51M
Net Income$43M$46M$39M$42M
EPS (Diluted)$-5.96$1.10$0.93$1.01
Gross Margin80.2%31.2%29.6%29.9%
Operating Margin14.2%15.8%15.5%15.6%
Net Margin11.2%12.0%12.1%12.7%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 13.4Revenue growth 28.2%Profit margin 10.6%Valuation below sector median (P/E 13.4)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 73/100Score impact: -2.2pt

Volume
74
436K avg/day
Dollar Vol
80
$21M/day
Float
67
37M shares
Mkt Cap
58
$1.9B
Range
87
53% spread
Composite Liquidity Score73/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
90.7%
Outstanding Shares
40M
Bid-Ask Spread
53.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.