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DUOL

💻 Technology

Duolingo, Inc.

Conservative #466Aggressive #87High RiskHigh 100
Market Cap
$5.2B
P/E Ratio
14.2
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
40.8%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
451.3%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.07

Why This Score

DUOL scores 53.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 14.2x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.07) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (18.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score53.6
Fundamental Score45.1
ML Score90.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.5
6 Month
77.7
Primary
1 Year
81.8

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
89
Grade A
Base
54.1
SHAP
+1.3
Factors
+0.9
Conviction
+1.9
Divergence
-4.5
Final
53.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

75AVG
Value85
Quality70
Growth90
Stability90
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)70.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)23.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.3% to +8.1%
Medium-term
+5.5% to +12.9%
Long-term
+8.5% to +18.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 90

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.3/100
Target Upside+134.2%
Coverage21 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.6%
6M Momentum-0.6%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-1.7%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.97)
Relative Strength vs Sector-67.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.4)
Momentum Quality-0.138
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P94
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P67
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P69
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.6σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 79 relative to sector peers79/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 82th percentileP82
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (79.3) + 9% ML (82.0) + SHAP(+2.4) = 81.9
Factor quality: +1.7pt (multi-factor composite)
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($5.2B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 18.7%. Max drawdown 78% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -64% (-10.0 pts)High

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #108 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
DUOL53.614.240.8%11.8%$5.2B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for DUOL.

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 14.2Revenue growth 40.8%Profit margin 11.8%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 89/100Score impact: -19.5pt

Volume
100
2.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$214M/day
Float
70
40M shares
Mkt Cap
67
$5.2B
Range
100
421% spread
Composite Liquidity Score89/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$94.51$205.0073.8%Wide
2022$60.50$113.3660.8%Wide
2023$68.93$245.87112.4%Wide
2024$145.05$378.4889.2%Wide
2025$166.27$544.93106.5%Wide
3-Year Range
155.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
85.7%
Outstanding Shares
46M
Bid-Ask Spread
421.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.