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PUBM

๐Ÿ’ป Technology

PubMatic, Inc.

Conservative #978Aggressive #930Moderate Risk
$7.07+7.45%
Day High$7.08
Day Low$6.46
Volume2.0M
Mkt Cap$335M
52W Low $652W High $14
Market Cap
$327M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
9.1%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
40.8%
Profit Margin
-2.5%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.18

Why This Score

PUBM scores 35.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (83/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (12.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. PUBM's rank of #978 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score35.2
Fundamental Score35.1
ML Score25.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
51.2
6 Month
57.2
Primary
1 Year
60.2

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (1217.0%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
54
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
61
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
61
Grade Blow dollar volume, small cap
Base
31.2
SHAP
+1.6
Factors
+0.9
Conviction
+1.4
Final
35.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

55AVG
Value50
Quality14
Growth79
Stability63
Investment69

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)60.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)33.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.2% to +1.8%
Medium-term
-2.8% to +3.2%
Long-term
-3.6% to +4.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 25

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score60.9/100
Target Upside+120.5%
Coverage16 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.4%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-13.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.64)
Relative Strength vs Sector-42.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.1)
Momentum Quality-0.202
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
28%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P46
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P93
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 35 relative to sector peers35/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 25th percentileP25
Blended score: 80% fundamental (35) + 20% ML (25) = 33.133.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 47% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.6pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.4pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (1217.0%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology โ€” Rank #223 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PUBM35.2N/A9.1%-2.5%$327M
MPWR85.191.721.2%81.0%$56.6B
ZM84.518.03.1%21.7%$22.4B
NVDA80.745.2114.2%55.8%$4.6T
CRUS80.319.16.0%17.5%$7.3B
CSCO78.027.65.3%18.0%$311.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$566.0B
RMBS77.748.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
IDCC77.731.8-4.0%48.8%$9.6B
ADI75.674.116.9%20.6%$173.8B
FSLR75.317.326.7%30.7%$22.3B
SIMO74.59.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
AAPL74.433.16.4%27.0%$4.0T
DBX74.013.91.9%17.7%$6.7B
LRCX73.948.323.7%29.1%$295.9B
TER73.790.95.4%19.2%$53.1B
Sector Average48.149.814.8%-110.0%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold16 analysts
Buy: 7Hold: 9
Price Target
$14consensus
Low $14Median $14High $14
+98.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

PubMatic, Inc. provides a cloud infrastructure platform that enables real-time programmatic advertising transactions for Internet content creators and advertisers worldwide. The company's solutions include Openwrap, a header bidding solution that provides enterprise-grade management and analytics tools; Openwrap OTT, a header bidding management solution for OTT; Openwrap SDK, a header bidding solution for in-app developers; private marketplace solutions; and media buyer consoles. In addition, it offers Real-Time Bidding (RTB) programmatic technologies, which provides various selling options across screens and ad formats; digital advertising inventory quality solutions to detect and filter out invalid traffic and other nefarious activity; Ad quality solutions targeting the reduction of security issues, quality issues, and performance issues; Identity Hub, an identity solution that allows for the use of any advertiser preferred user identifier in a scaled and privacy-compliant fashion; Audience Encore, an audience data platform; and cross-platform video, a sell side platform, which connects trusted video buyers to premium publishers. The company's platform supports an array of ad formats and digital device types, including mobile app, mobile web, desktop, display, video, over-the-top (OTT), connected television, and media. PubMatic, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Redwood City, California.

CEO
Rajeev K. Goel
Employees
1,049
Beta
1.49
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
66.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-52.2%
High: $14.8
From 52W Low
+15%
Low: $6.15
Moving Averages
10-Day
$6.50
Above
20-Day
$6.70
Above
50-Day
$7.70
Below
200-Day
$9.40
Below
60-Day Support
$6.15
60-Day Resistance
$9.44
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 12/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-24.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-7.36%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.22x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
72
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$80M$68M$71M$64M
Gross Profit$55M$43M$44M$38M
Operating Income$9M$-8M$-5M$-12M
Net Income$7M$-6M$-5M$-9M
EPS (Diluted)$0.14$-0.14$-0.11$-0.20
Gross Margin68.2%62.6%62.6%59.9%
Operating Margin10.6%-12.4%-7.7%-18.6%
Net Margin8.4%-9.5%-7.3%-14.9%

Why This Stock

TechnologyValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 61/100Score impact: -13.2pt

Volume
84
593K avg/day
Dollar Vol
34
$4M/day
Float
77
47M shares
Mkt Cap
10
$327M
Range
100
141% spread
Composite Liquidity Score61/100
FDCBA
low dollar volumesmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$21.61$76.96112.3%Wide
2022$12.19$34.7596.1%Wide
2023$10.92$20.0859.1%Wide
2024$13.18$25.3663.2%Wide
2025$7.01$17.3284.8%Wide
3-Year Range
113.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.2%
Outstanding Shares
47M
Bid-Ask Spread
141.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.