Back to Dashboard
65

PAYX

💻 Technology

Paychex, Inc.

Conservative #202Aggressive #364Moderate RiskModerate 77ML↑ 16pt
$91.23+3.11%
Day High$91.31
Day Low$88.55
Volume3.4M
Mkt Cap$32.7B
52W Low $8952W High $161
Market Cap
$33.9B
P/E Ratio
21.4
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
5.6%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-2.0%
Profit Margin
29.7%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
1.22

Why This Score

PAYX scores 64.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 40.1% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 29.7%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Low volatility (4.9% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (95/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (77/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.22) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-3.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score64.8
Fundamental Score56.6
ML Score95.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
72.6
6 Month
81.1
Primary
1 Year
85.4

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
41
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
48
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
99
Grade A
Base
64.3
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.6
Divergence
-3.5
Final
64.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

63AVG
Value70
Quality95
Growth60
Stability60
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)71.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)40.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)72.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.2% to +4.1%
Medium-term
+0.3% to +6.9%
Long-term
+0.9% to +9.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 95

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score48.3/100
Target Upside+37.5%
Coverage30 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score40.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.4%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-4.2%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.88)
Relative Strength vs Sector-38.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.218
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
23%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P35
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P55
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P65
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.5pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (70.0) + 9% ML (86.5) + SHAP(+2.5) = 74.0—
Factor quality: +1.7pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 4.9%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Max drawdown 38% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -35% (-6.0 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($33.9B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.9pt (ML 16pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #54 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PAYX64.821.45.6%29.7%$33.9B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold30 analysts
Buy: 4Hold: 20Sell: 6
Price Target
$122consensus
Low $98Median $123High $140
+33.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Paychex, Inc. provides integrated human capital management solutions for human resources (HR), payroll, benefits, and insurance services for small to medium-sized businesses in the United States, Europe, and India. It offers payroll processing services; payroll tax administration services; employee payment services; and regulatory compliance services, such as new-hire reporting and garnishment processing. The company also provides HR solutions, including payroll, employer compliance, HR and employee benefits administration, risk management outsourcing, and the on-site availability of a professionally trained HR representative; and retirement services administration, including plan implementation, ongoing compliance with government regulations, employee and employer reporting, participant and employer online access, electronic funds transfer, and other administrative services. In addition, it offers cloud-based HR administration software products for employee benefits management and administration, time and attendance, digital communication solutions, recruiting, and onboarding solutions; plan administration outsourcing and state unemployment insurance services; various business services to small to medium-sized businesses comprising payroll funding and outsourcing services, which include payroll processing, invoicing, and tax preparation; and payment processing services, financial fitness programs, and a small-business loan resource center. Further, the company provides insurance services for property and casualty coverage, such as workers' compensation, business-owner policies, cyber security protection, and commercial auto, as well as health and benefits coverage, including health, dental, vision, and life. It markets and sells its services primarily through its direct sales force. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.

CEO
John Gibson Jr.
Employees
16,500
Beta
0.89
Industry
Staffing & Employment Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
34.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-43.4%
High: $161.24
From 52W Low
+5%
Low: $86.89
Moving Averages
10-Day
$92.00
Below
20-Day
$96.00
Below
50-Day
$105.40
Below
200-Day
$127.60
Below
60-Day Support
$86.89
60-Day Resistance
$117.83
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 11/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-28.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-8.85%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.17x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$1.6B$1.5B$1.4B$1.5B
Gross Profit$1.1B$1.1B$1.0B$1.1B
Operating Income$572M$542M$431M$692M
Net Income$395M$384M$297M$519M
EPS (Diluted)$1.10$1.06$0.82$1.43
Gross Margin73.5%73.1%72.4%74.3%
Operating Margin36.7%35.2%30.2%45.8%
Net Margin25.4%24.9%20.8%34.4%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 21.4Profit margin 29.7%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 99/100Score impact: -4.1pt

Volume
100
3.7M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$320M/day
Float
100
322M shares
Mkt Cap
91
$33.9B
Range
100
85% spread
Composite Liquidity Score99/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
89.6%
Outstanding Shares
359M
Bid-Ask Spread
85.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.