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OXLCG

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Oxford Lane Capital Corp. 7.95% Notes due 2032

Conservative #1408Aggressive #1466Moderate RiskFโ†‘ 31pt
$25.06-0.44%
Day High$25.18
Day Low$25.02
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$8.5B
52W Low $2452W High $26
Market Cap
$8.5B
P/E Ratio
213.2
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
-67.1%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-79.4%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.38

Why This Score

OXLCG scores 3.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 213.2x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (20.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -30.9 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, OXLCG would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score3.8
Fundamental Score36.4
ML Score3.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
1.6
6 Month
1.8
Primary
1 Year
1.9

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-21653.6%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
39
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, very low dollar volume
Base
4.7
SHAP
+3.4
Factors
-0.3
Conviction
-1.3
Divergence
-2.8
Final
3.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

40AVG
Value38
Quality28
Growth0
Stability73
Investment63

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)20.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage72%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-17.6% to -5.6%
Medium-term
-22.7% to -6.7%
Long-term
-29.5% to -6.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 3

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score38.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (0.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector-8.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality+0.000
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P1
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P0
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P100
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-1.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 36 relative to sector peers36/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 3th percentileP3
Blended score: 80% fundamental (36) + 20% ML (3) = 29.729.7
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%Low
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +3.4pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -1.3pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -2.8pt (ML 33pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-21653.6%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #337 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
OXLCG3.8213.2-67.1%0.8%$8.5B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Oxford Lane Capital Corp. is a close ended fund launched and managed by Oxford Lane Management LLC. It invests in fixed income securities. The fund primarily invests in securitization vehicles which in turn invest in senior secured loans made to companies whose debt is rated below investment grade or is unrated. Oxford Lane Capital Corp was formed on June 9, 2010 and is domiciled in the United States.

CEO
Jonathan H. Cohen
Beta
0.82
Industry
Asset Management
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
36.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-2.1%
High: $25.6
From 52W Low
+4.2%
Low: $24.06
Moving Averages
10-Day
$25.20
Below
20-Day
$25.30
Below
50-Day
$25.30
Below
200-Day
$25.10
Below
60-Day Support
$24.82
60-Day Resistance
$25.6
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 โ€” BasingScore: 47/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1โ†’2
Price vs 200 SMA
-0.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
0%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.88x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
1
Confidence: 80%

Entry & Exit Zones

In Entry Zone
$23.36
Stop Entry Now Target
$30.97
Entry Zone
$24.60 โ€“ $25.60
Near SMA200 base ($24.6โ€“$25.6)
Exit Target
$30.07
Prior high / breakout target ($30.07)
Stop Level
$24.08
60-day low ($24.08)
Risk / Reward:1 : 4.87Favorable

Stage 1 base-building โ€” stock is consolidating above long-term support. Entry near SMA200 offers a defined risk level. Wait for volume confirmation before sizing up.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q4 2025Q2 2024Q4 2024
Revenue$226M$224M$204M$158M
Gross Profit$157M$0$153M$116M
Operating Income$48M$4M$83M$136M
Net Income$21M$-17M$66M$120M
EPS (Diluted)$0.24$-0.04$0.26$0.55
Gross Margin69.6%0.0%74.9%73.7%
Operating Margin21.3%1.6%40.8%86.5%
Net Margin9.3%-7.7%32.1%76.1%

Why This Stock

Financial Services

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -25.8pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
7K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$175K/day
Float
0
93M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$8.5B
Range
0
6% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumevery low dollar volumesideways trading

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.21x dampening
weinstein basingsevere revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
27.7%
Outstanding Shares
337M
Bid-Ask Spread
6.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.