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69

NVMI

๐Ÿ’ป Technology

Nova Ltd.

Conservative #109Aggressive #39Low RiskMixed 49MLโ†‘ 26pt
$457.01+0.44%
Day High$463.99
Day Low$455.08
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$13.6B
52W Low $15452W High $507
Market Cap
$13.2B
P/E Ratio
55.6
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
29.8%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
34.8%
Profit Margin
27.3%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.25

Why This Score

NVMI scores 69.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 19.8% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 27.3%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (91/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 55.6x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (16.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-6.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score69.2
Fundamental Score66.7
ML Score91.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
71.8
6 Month
80.3
Primary
1 Year
84.5

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Country Risk:
Score penalty of points applied for domicile risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.9%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
72
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
80
Grade A
Base
66.6
SHAP
+2.7
Factors
+1.3
Divergence
-1.4
Final
69.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

71AVG
Value40
Quality95
Growth90
Stability90
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)70.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)90.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)87.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+11.7% to +18.3%
Medium-term
+17.2% to +26.8%
Long-term
+26.1% to +39.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 91

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+11.7%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score71.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.9%
6M Momentum+0.7%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+17.0%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.80)
Relative Strength vs Sector+81.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.776
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P88
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P20
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P31
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.4ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (60.0) + 9% ML (85.6) + SHAP(+3.7) = 66.0โ€”
Factor quality: +1.8pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 16.3%. Max drawdown 9% (-0.5 pts)Low
Momentum mean-reversion: -0.3pt (86% 12m momentum)โ€”
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($13.2B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.3pt (ML 26pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Country risk: Israel -6.5pt [structural: -2pt, macro: -4.5pt] (Active regional conflict, but strong legal system)Country

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology โ€” Rank #25 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NVMI69.255.629.8%27.3%$13.2B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy12 analysts
Buy: 12
Price Target
$490consensus
Low $453Median $493High $520
+7.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Nova Ltd. designs, develops, produces, and sells process control systems used in the manufacture of semiconductors in Israel, Taiwan, the United States, China, Korea, and internationally. Its product portfolio includes a set of metrology platforms for dimensional, films, and materials and chemical metrology measurements for process control for various semiconductor manufacturing process steps, including lithography, etch, chemical mechanical planarization, deposition, electrochemical plating, and advanced packaging. The company serves various sectors of the integrated circuit manufacturing industry, including logic, foundries, and memory manufacturers, as well as process equipment manufacturers. Nova Ltd. was formerly known as Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. and changed its name to Nova Ltd. in July 2021. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Rehovot, Israel.

CEO
Gabriel Waisman
Employees
1,177
Beta
1.82
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
65.2
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-9.9%
High: $507.27
From 52W Low
+196.8%
Low: $154
Moving Averages
10-Day
$449.60
Above
20-Day
$453.30
Above
50-Day
$408.80
Above
200-Day
$310.30
Above
60-Day Support
$298.45
60-Day Resistance
$507.27
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+47.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+22.01%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.09x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$223M$225M$220M$213M
Gross Profit$128M$127M$127M$122M
Operating Income$61M$64M$66M$63M
Net Income$65M$61M$68M$65M
EPS (Diluted)$1.94$1.90$2.14$2.03
Gross Margin57.6%56.7%57.8%57.3%
Operating Margin27.3%28.4%29.8%29.6%
Net Margin29.1%27.3%31.0%30.4%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 29.8%Profit margin 27.3%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 80/100Score impact: -10.6pt

Volume
67
367K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$163M/day
Float
62
32M shares
Mkt Cap
82
$13.2B
Range
100
229% spread
Composite Liquidity Score80/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$76.76$148.9464%Wide
2022$67.40$149.1575.5%Wide
2023$81.91$138.5051.3%Wide
2024$128.74$247.2163%Wide
2025$154.00$361.3280.5%Wide
3-Year Range
126.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
107.1%
Outstanding Shares
30M
Bid-Ask Spread
229.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.