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50

MTSI

💻 Technology

MACOM Technology Solutions Hold

Conservative #563Aggressive #742Low RiskMixed 45ML↑ 27pt
$253.37+2.05%
Day High$256.11
Day Low$249.99
Volume1.1M
Mkt Cap$19.0B
52W Low $8452W High $256
Market Cap
$18.3B
P/E Ratio
110.0
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
32.6%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-170.5%
Profit Margin
-5.6%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.41

Why This Score

MTSI scores 50.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 110.0x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (12.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-1.4 points) applied. MTSI's rank of #563 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score50.2
Fundamental Score52.6
ML Score28.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
62.7
6 Month
70.1
Primary
1 Year
73.8

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
63
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
95
Grade A
Base
47.6
SHAP
+2.7
Factors
+1.3
Divergence
-1.4
Final
50.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

46AVG
Value40
Quality40
Growth35
Stability75
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)37.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)90.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)71.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.8% to +6.4%
Medium-term
+3.7% to +10.7%
Long-term
+5.5% to +15.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 28

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.0/100
Target Upside+0.1%
Coverage23 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score62.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.1%
6M Momentum+0.9%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+20.6%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.81)
Relative Strength vs Sector+107.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.965
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P91
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P8
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P29
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.5σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 46 relative to sector peers46/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 73th percentileP73
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (45.8) + 9% ML (73.1) + SHAP(+3.1) = 51.3—
Factor quality: +1.5pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 12.4%. Max drawdown 13% (-2.0 pts)Low
Momentum mean-reversion: -1.6pt (111% 12m momentum)—
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($18.3B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.6pt (ML 27pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #134 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MTSI50.2110.032.6%-5.6%$18.3B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy23 analysts
Buy: 14Hold: 7Sell: 2
Price Target
$243consensus
Low $175Median $258High $275
-4.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and manufactures analog semiconductor solutions for use in wireless and wireline applications across the radio frequency (RF), microwave, millimeter wave, and lightwave spectrum in the United States, China, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company offers a portfolio of standard and custom devices, including integrated circuits, multi-chip modules, diodes, amplifiers, switches and switch limiters, passive and active components, and subsystems. Its semiconductor products are electronic components that are incorporated in electronic systems, such as wireless basestations, high-capacity optical networks, radar, and medical systems and test and measurement. The company serves various markets comprising telecommunication that includes carrier infrastructure, which comprise long-haul/metro, 5G, and fiber-to-the-X/passive optical network; industrial and defense, including military and commercial radar, RF jammers, electronic countermeasures, and communication data links, as well as multi-market applications, such as industrial, medical, test and measurement, and scientific applications; and data centers. It sells its products through direct sales force, applications engineering staff, independent sales representatives, resellers, and distributors. The company was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Lowell, Massachusetts.

CEO
Stephen G. Daly
Employees
1,700
Beta
1.43
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
83.4
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.1%
High: $256.11
From 52W Low
+201.6%
Low: $84
Moving Averages
10-Day
$244.60
Above
20-Day
$236.00
Above
50-Day
$208.20
Above
200-Day
$156.20
Above
60-Day Support
$162.94
60-Day Resistance
$256.11
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+62.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+22.87%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.8x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
93
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$272M$261M$252M$236M
Gross Profit$152M$143M$135M$126M
Operating Income$43M$40M$38M$35M
Net Income$49M$45M$37M$32M
EPS (Diluted)$0.64$0.59$0.48$0.42
Gross Margin55.9%54.6%53.7%53.5%
Operating Margin15.9%15.2%14.9%14.8%
Net Margin18.0%17.3%14.5%13.4%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 32.6%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 95/100Score impact: -1.3pt

Volume
100
1.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$326M/day
Float
87
67M shares
Mkt Cap
84
$18.3B
Range
100
199% spread
Composite Liquidity Score95/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$48.68$80.3049%Wide
2022$42.85$80.0060.5%Wide
2023$48.53$96.0965.8%Wide
2024$79.25$143.9057.9%Wide
2025$84.00$190.9577.8%Wide
3-Year Range
118.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
89.4%
Outstanding Shares
75M
Bid-Ask Spread
199.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.