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21

NPCE

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

NeuroPace, Inc.

Conservative #1261Aggressive #689Moderate Risk
$15.02+2.04%
Day High$15.08
Day Low$14.55
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$500M
52W Low $852W High $19
Market Cap
$495M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
22.1%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
17.6%
Profit Margin
-25.3%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
3.84

Why This Score

NPCE scores 21.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (16%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (95/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (21.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 3.84) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score21.2
Fundamental Score25.0
ML Score11.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
54.1
6 Month
60.5
Primary
1 Year
63.6

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 3.8x โ€” balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.8%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
65
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
73
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
47
Grade Clow dollar volume, small cap
Base
17.2
SHAP
+0.9
Factors
+1.0
Conviction
+2.1
Final
21.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

40AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth75
Stability41
Investment34

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)45.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)71.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.1% to +5.7%
Medium-term
+2.6% to +9.6%
Long-term
+4.0% to +13.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 11

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score72.5/100
Target Upside+30.4%
Coverage10 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score65.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.6%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-48.3%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.25)
Relative Strength vs Sector-8.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.8)
Momentum Quality+0.104
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P71
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P42
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 25 relative to sector peers25/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 11th percentileP11
Blended score: 80% fundamental (25) + 20% ML (11) = 22.222.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 36% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +0.9pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.1pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 3.8x โ€” balance sheet riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #271 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NPCE21.2N/A22.1%-25.3%$495M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

NeuroPace, Inc. operates as a medical device company in the United States. It develops and sells RNS system, a brain-responsive neuromodulation system for treating medically refractory focal epilepsy by delivering personalized real-time treatment at the seizure source. The company's RNS system also records continuous brain activity data; and enables clinicians to monitor patients in person and remotely. It sells its products to hospital facilities for initial RNS system implant procedures and for replacement procedures. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

CEO
Joel D. Becker
Employees
184
Beta
1.86
Industry
Medical - Devices
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
44.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-20.9%
High: $18.98
From 52W Low
+98.7%
Low: $7.56
Moving Averages
10-Day
$14.70
Above
20-Day
$15.10
Below
50-Day
$15.80
Below
200-Day
$12.50
Above
60-Day Support
$14.02
60-Day Resistance
$17.9
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 84/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+20.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+10.68%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.82x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
77
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$27M$24M$23M$21M
Gross Profit$21M$18M$17M$16M
Operating Income$-3M$-7M$-5M$-4M
Net Income$-3M$-9M$-7M$-5M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.11$-0.26$-0.21$-0.18
Gross Margin77.4%77.1%77.0%75.4%
Operating Margin-9.5%-29.0%-22.9%-17.0%
Net Margin-12.8%-36.8%-29.3%-24.5%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 22.1%

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 47/100Score impact: -37.2pt

Volume
52
221K avg/day
Dollar Vol
28
$3M/day
Float
53
23M shares
Mkt Cap
28
$495M
Range
100
151% spread
Composite Liquidity Score47/100
FDCBA
low dollar volumesmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$8.29$27.38107%Wide
2022$1.22$12.06163.3%Wide
2023$1.38$10.32152.8%Wide
2024$5.45$18.15107.6%Wide
2025$7.56$18.9886.1%Wide
3-Year Range
172.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
67.7%
Outstanding Shares
33M
Bid-Ask Spread
151.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.