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49

LQDT

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Liquidity Services, Inc.

Conservative #623Aggressive #479Moderate Risk
$31.42+0.58%
Day High$31.62
Day Low$31.18
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$974M
52W Low $2252W High $34
Market Cap
$988M
P/E Ratio
32.8
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
31.2%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
40.5%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.10

Why This Score

LQDT scores 50.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (12.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score50.0
Fundamental Score52.5
ML Score45.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.4
6 Month
74.2
Primary
1 Year
78.1

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality — moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
55
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
57
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
52
Grade Clow volume
Base
46.0
SHAP
+1.3
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+2.0
Final
50.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

71AVG
Value52
Quality46
Growth100
Stability74
Investment84

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)56.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.2% to +4.6%
Medium-term
+1.0% to +7.7%
Long-term
+1.7% to +10.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 45

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score57.1/100
Target Upside+43.3%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-23.8%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.53)
Relative Strength vs Sector-9.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.7)
Momentum Quality-0.060
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P93
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P23
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P61
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+1.6σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 53 relative to sector peers53/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 45th percentileP45
Blended score: 80% fundamental (53) + 20% ML (45) = 51.051.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 26% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.3pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.0pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #56 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LQDT50.032.831.2%6.3%$988M
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Liquidity Services, Inc. provides e-commerce marketplaces, self-directed auction listing tools, and value-added services. It operates through four segments: Retail Supply Chain Group, Capital Assets Group, GovDeals, and Machinio. The company's marketplaces include liquidation.com that enable corporations to sell surplus and salvage consumer goods and retail capital assets; GovDeals marketplace, which provides self-directed service solutions in which sellers list their own assets that enables local and state government entities, and commercial businesses located in the United States and Canada to sell surplus and salvage assets; and AllSurplus, a centralized marketplace that connects global buyer base with assets from across the network of marketplaces in a single destination. It also provides marketplace for corporations located in the North America, Europe, Australia, Asia, and Africa to sell manufacturing surplus, salvage capital assets, and scrap material, as well as offers a suite of services, including surplus management, asset valuation, asset sales, marketing, returns management, asset recovery, and ecommerce services. In addition, the company operates a global search engine platform for listing used equipment for sale in the construction, machine tool, transportation, printing, and agriculture sectors. It offers products from industry verticals, such as consumer electronics, general merchandise, apparel, scientific equipment, aerospace parts and equipment, technology hardware, real estate, energy equipment, industrial capital assets, heavy equipment, fleet and transportation equipment, and specialty equipment. Liquidity Services, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.

CEO
William Paul Angrick
Employees
781
Beta
1.07
Industry
Specialty Retail
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
39.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-10.2%
High: $34.97
From 52W Low
+45%
Low: $21.67
Moving Averages
10-Day
$31.10
Above
20-Day
$31.70
Below
50-Day
$31.50
Below
200-Day
$26.90
Above
60-Day Support
$29.11
60-Day Resistance
$33.61
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 39/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+16.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.1%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
65
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$121M$118M$120M$116M
Gross Profit$54M$56M$55M$47M
Operating Income$9M$11M$10M$7M
Net Income$7M$8M$7M$7M
EPS (Diluted)$0.23$0.24$0.23$0.22
Gross Margin44.9%47.8%45.7%40.8%
Operating Margin7.7%9.3%8.5%5.8%
Net Margin6.2%6.6%6.2%6.1%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalRevenue growth 31.2%

Tradability FilterGrade C — 52/100Score impact: -0.5pt

Volume
45
186K avg/day
Dollar Vol
51
$6M/day
Float
53
23M shares
Mkt Cap
39
$988M
Range
91
61% spread
Composite Liquidity Score52/100
FDCBA
low volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$14.86$30.0067.5%Wide
2022$11.39$23.3969%Wide
2023$11.97$21.1055.2%Wide
2024$13.99$36.0088.1%Wide
2025$21.67$39.7258.8%Wide
3-Year Range
107.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
75.1%
Outstanding Shares
31M
Bid-Ask Spread
61.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.