Back to Dashboard
43

LITE

💻 Technology

Lumentum Holdings Inc.

Conservative #772Aggressive #162Low RiskHigh 94
$723.39+5.10%
Day High$764.99
Day Low$712.73
Volume4.6M
Mkt Cap$51.7B
52W Low $4652W High $765
Market Cap
$40.2B
P/E Ratio
164.1
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
21.0%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
104.7%
Profit Margin
1.6%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
2.30

Why This Score

LITE scores 42.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (94/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (700%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Elevated valuation at 164.1x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (18.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.30) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-8.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score42.8
Fundamental Score42.5
ML Score64.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
30.5
6 Month
34.0
Primary
1 Year
35.8

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.2%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
96
Grade A
Base
39.8
SHAP
+2.1
Factors
+0.2
Conviction
+1.7
Divergence
-1.0
Final
42.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

57AVG
Value40
Quality55
Growth90
Stability45
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)38.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)90.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)57.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-11.7% to -6.3%
Medium-term
-15.3% to -7.6%
Long-term
-19.0% to -8.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 64

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.8/100
Target Upside-33.4%
Coverage24 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+7.0%
6M Momentum+3.2%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+376.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.46)
Relative Strength vs Sector+696.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+6.631
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P74
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P5
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P21
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 39 relative to sector peers39/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 42th percentileP42
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (39.2) + 9% ML (42.2) + SHAP(+3.7) = 43.1
Factor quality: +0.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 18.9%Low
Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (700% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($40.2B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.9pt (conviction=94)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: Elevated non-operating income: 13pp gap between net and operating margin; High leverage: D/E ratio of 2.3x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #174 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LITE42.8164.121.0%1.6%$40.2B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy24 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 16Hold: 7
Price Target
$442consensus
Low $220Median $475High $645
-38.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates in two segments, Optical Communications (OpComms) and Commercial Lasers (Lasers). The OpComms segment offers components, modules, and subsystems that enable the transmission and transport of video, audio, and data over high-capacity fiber optic cables. It offers tunable transponders, transceivers, and transmitter modules; tunable lasers, receivers, and modulators; transport products, such as reconfigurable optical add/drop multiplexers, amplifiers, and optical channel monitors, as well as components, including 980nm, multi-mode, and Raman pumps; and switches, attenuators, photodetectors, gain flattening filters, isolators, wavelength-division multiplexing filters, arrayed waveguide gratings, multiplex/de-multiplexers, and integrated passive modules. This segment also provides Super Transport Blade, which integrates optical transport functions into a single-slot blade; vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers; directly modulated and electro-absorption modulated lasers; and laser illumination sources for 3D sensing systems. It serves customers in telecommunications, data communications, and consumer and industrial markets. The Commercial Lasers segment offers diode-pumped solid-state, fiber, diode, direct-diode, and gas lasers for use in original equipment manufacturer applications. It serves customers in markets and applications, such as sheet metal processing, general manufacturing, biotechnology, graphics and imaging, remote sensing, and precision machining. Lumentum Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

CEO
Michael E. Hurlston
Employees
7,257
Beta
1.53
Industry
Communication Equipment
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
87.5
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.4%
High: $765
From 52W Low
+1484.6%
Low: $45.65
Moving Averages
10-Day
$630.50
Above
20-Day
$549.10
Above
50-Day
$434.20
Above
200-Day
$221.50
Above
60-Day Support
$288.5
60-Day Resistance
$765
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 95/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+226.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+92.19%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.95x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$666M$534M$481M$425M
Gross Profit$240M$182M$160M$123M
Operating Income$64M$7M$-8M$-38M
Net Income$78M$4M$213M$-44M
EPS (Diluted)$0.89$0.05$2.96$-0.64
Gross Margin36.1%34.0%33.3%28.8%
Operating Margin9.7%1.3%-1.7%-8.9%
Net Margin11.8%0.8%44.4%-10.4%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 21.0%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 96/100Score impact: -21.3pt

Volume
100
4.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$3.2B/day
Float
80
0K shares
Mkt Cap
99
$40.2B
Range
100
1407% spread
Composite Liquidity Score96/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$65.67$107.9048.7%Wide
2022$48.73$108.9076.3%Wide
2023$35.35$65.1659.3%Wide
2024$38.28$96.2586.2%Wide
2025$45.65$401.60159.2%Wide
3-Year Range
167.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
1407.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.