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18

LCID

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Lucid Group, Inc.

Conservative #1307Aggressive #676High RiskMLโ†‘ 20pt
$10.00-5.57%
Day High$10.30
Day Low$9.81
Volume5.9M
Mkt Cap$3.2B
52W Low $952W High $34
Market Cap
$3.1B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
35.7%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
4.0%
Profit Margin
-214.1%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
1.56

Why This Score

LCID scores 18.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (15.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.56) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-1.2 points) applied. LCID's rank of #1307 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score18.1
Fundamental Score13.5
ML Score30.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
34.0
6 Month
38.0
Primary
1 Year
40.0

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
49
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
48
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
94
Grade A
Base
16.8
SHAP
+2.0
Conviction
-0.5
Divergence
-0.2
Final
18.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

35AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth73
Stability40
Investment12

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)52.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)24.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)74.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-7.5% to -2.7%
Medium-term
-10.4% to -3.3%
Long-term
-13.3% to -3.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 30

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score48.2/100
Target Upside+65.8%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score49.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-5.6%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.90)
Relative Strength vs Sector-54.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.5)
Momentum Quality-0.220
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P96
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P43
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P2
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+1.9ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 14 relative to sector peers14/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 30th percentileP30
Blended score: 80% fundamental (14) + 20% ML (30) = 16.816.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 59% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +2.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -0.5pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -0.2pt (ML 17pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #110 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LCID18.1N/A35.7%-214.1%$3.1B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$91.3B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$30.9B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.6B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$78.4B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.0B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$10.0B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$40.2B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.1B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.7B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.3B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.1B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold14 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 9Sell: 3
Price Target
$14consensus
Low $10Median $14High $21
+44.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Lucid Group, Inc. a technology and automotive company, develops electric vehicle (EV) technologies. The company designs, engineers, and builds electric vehicles, EV powertrains, and battery systems. As of December 31, 2021, it operates twenty retail studios in the United States. Lucid Group, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Newark, California.

CEO
Marc Winterhoff
Employees
6,800
Beta
1.11
Industry
Auto - Manufacturers
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
40.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-70.3%
High: $33.7
From 52W Low
+9.6%
Low: $9.12
Moving Averages
10-Day
$10.00
Below
20-Day
$10.20
Below
50-Day
$10.80
Below
200-Day
$18.30
Below
60-Day Support
$9.12
60-Day Resistance
$14.26
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-45.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-17.85%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.96x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$523M$337M$259M$235M
Gross Profit$-422M$-334M$-272M$-229M
Operating Income$-1.1B$-942M$-803M$-692M
Net Income$-814M$-978M$-539M$-366M
EPS (Diluted)$-3.30$-3.31$-2.80$-2.40
Gross Margin-80.7%-99.1%-105.0%-97.2%
Operating Margin-203.7%-279.9%-309.5%-294.4%
Net Margin-155.7%-290.7%-207.9%-155.8%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalRevenue growth 35.7%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 94/100Score impact: -30.9pt

Volume
100
7.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$71M/day
Float
100
130M shares
Mkt Cap
63
$3.1B
Range
100
270% spread
Composite Liquidity Score94/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$161.20$577.50112.7%Wide
2022$61.80$475.90154%Wide
2023$36.20$178.10132.4%Wide
2024$19.30$44.3078.6%Wide
2025$10.46$36.40110.7%Wide
3-Year Range
177.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
40.2%
Outstanding Shares
324M
Bid-Ask Spread
270.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.