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ITRI

💻 Technology

Itron, Inc.

Conservative #554Aggressive #769Moderate RiskHigh 100
$97.15-0.71%
Day High$98.53
Day Low$95.00
Volume1.3M
Mkt Cap$4.4B
52W Low $8952W High $142
Market Cap
$4.6B
P/E Ratio
15.0
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
-3.0%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
25.9%
Profit Margin
12.7%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.75

Why This Score

ITRI scores 50.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 18.5% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 15.0x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.

No material penalties applied. ITRI ranks #554 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score50.5
Fundamental Score46.9
ML Score47.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.7
6 Month
74.6
Primary
1 Year
78.5

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
49
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
56
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
85
Grade A
Base
46.5
SHAP
+1.5
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.9
Final
50.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)62.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)45.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.4% to +3.8%
Medium-term
-3.2% to +6.1%
Long-term
-4.0% to +8.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 47

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.1/100
Target Upside+39.0%
Coverage37 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score49.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+9.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.66)
Relative Strength vs Sector-21.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.2)
Momentum Quality-0.122
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
44%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P14
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P66
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P77
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 74 relative to sector peers74/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 78th percentileP78
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (73.5) + 9% ML (78.3) + SHAP(+3.0) = 77.0
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 8.3%. Max drawdown 32% (-9.6 pts). Price momentum -18% (-2.6 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.6B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-34.0%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #133 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ITRI50.515.0-3.0%12.7%$4.6B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold37 analysts
Buy: 14Hold: 18Sell: 5
Price Target
$137consensus
Low $128Median $133High $155
+40.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Itron, Inc., a technology and service company, provides end-to-end solutions that help manage operations in the energy, water, and smart city space worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Device Solutions, Networked Solutions, and Outcomes. The Device Solutions segment offers hardware products that are used for measurement, control, or sensing. The Networked Solutions segment provides a combination of communicating devices, such as smart meters, modules, endpoints, and sensors; network infrastructure; and associated application software for acquiring and transporting application-specific data. The Outcomes segment offers value-added, enhanced software and services for managing, organizing, analyzing, and interpreting data to enhance decision making, maximize operational profitability, drive resource efficiency, and deliver results for consumers, utilities, and smart cities. In addition, it offers implementation, project management, installation, consulting, and post-sale maintenance support services, as well as cloud and software-as-a-service; and extended or customer-specific warranties. It offers its products and services under the Itron brand. The company markets its products directly through its sales force, as well as through indirect sales force consisting of distributors, sales representatives, partners, and meter manufacturer representatives to utilities and municipalities. Itron, Inc. was incorporated in 1977 and is headquartered in Liberty Lake, Washington.

CEO
Thomas L. Deitrich
Employees
5,040
Beta
1.43
Industry
Hardware, Equipment & Parts
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
44.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-31.6%
High: $142
From 52W Low
+9.7%
Low: $88.57
Moving Averages
10-Day
$97.00
Above
20-Day
$99.30
Below
50-Day
$97.90
Below
200-Day
$114.90
Below
60-Day Support
$88.57
60-Day Resistance
$107.19
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 4/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-15.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-1.52%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
2.49x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
80
Confidence: 90%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-11)

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$572M$582M$607M$607M
Gross Profit$227M$220M$224M$217M
Operating Income$85M$82M$76M$76M
Net Income$102M$66M$68M$65M
EPS (Diluted)$2.21$1.41$1.47$1.42
Gross Margin39.7%37.7%36.9%35.8%
Operating Margin14.8%14.1%12.6%12.6%
Net Margin17.8%11.3%11.3%10.8%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 15.0Profit margin 12.7%Valuation below sector median (P/E 15.0)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 85/100Score impact: -3.5pt

Volume
87
687K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$65M/day
Float
74
44M shares
Mkt Cap
66
$4.6B
Range
90
60% spread
Composite Liquidity Score85/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$59.80$122.3168.7%Wide
2022$39.38$70.6756.9%Wide
2023$50.35$79.9945.5%Wide
2024$67.21$124.9060.1%Wide
2025$90.11$142.0044.7%Wide
3-Year Range
95.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
96.8%
Outstanding Shares
46M
Bid-Ask Spread
60.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.