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49

NOVT

💻 Technology

Novanta Inc.

Conservative #590Aggressive #618Moderate RiskLow 31ML↑ 35pt
Market Cap
$5.3B
P/E Ratio
100.3
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
7.7%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-12.1%
Profit Margin
6.8%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.63

Why This Score

NOVT scores 49.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated valuation at 100.3x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (11.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-5.6 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score49.1
Fundamental Score48.2
ML Score54.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
78.7
6 Month
88.0
Primary
1 Year
92.6

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
47
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
79
Grade B
Base
51.0
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.8
Conviction
-1.8
Divergence
-3.7
Final
49.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

54AVG
Value40
Quality55
Growth45
Stability75
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)39.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)72.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+7.7% to +13.3%
Medium-term
+12.3% to +20.8%
Long-term
+18.9% to +30.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 54

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score58.3/100
Target Upside+12.2%
Coverage3 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score47.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-24.5%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.05)
Relative Strength vs Sector-2.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.1)
Momentum Quality+0.009
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P43
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P9
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P43
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 54 relative to sector peers54/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 89th percentileP89
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (54.2) + 9% ML (88.7) + SHAP(+1.8) = 59.1—
Factor quality: +1.8pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 11.4%. Max drawdown 22% (-5.7 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($5.3B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.8pt (conviction=31)—
Divergence penalty: -3.7pt (ML 35pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #140 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NOVT49.1100.37.7%6.8%$5.3B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for NOVT.

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade B — 79/100Score impact: -10.1pt

Volume
74
441K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$63M/day
Float
65
35M shares
Mkt Cap
68
$5.3B
Range
88
56% spread
Composite Liquidity Score79/100
FDCBA
Free Float
98.6%
Outstanding Shares
36M
Bid-Ask Spread
56.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.