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INNV

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

InnovAge Holding Corp.

Conservative #1048Aggressive #921Moderate Risk
$9.30+4.49%
Day High$9.31
Day Low$8.75
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$1.3B
52W Low $352W High $9
Market Cap
$1.2B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
11.8%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-42.1%
Profit Margin
-0.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.46

Why This Score

INNV scores 31.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (89/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (157%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (19.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -11.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, INNV would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score31.8
Fundamental Score40.7
ML Score31.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
57.9
6 Month
64.7
Primary
1 Year
68.1

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-304.7%) โ€” earnings quality concern
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.1%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
48
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
44
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
45
Grade Clow dollar volume
Base
27.8
SHAP
+1.1
Factors
+1.0
Conviction
+1.9
Final
31.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

51AVG
Value50
Quality18
Growth32
Stability73
Investment81

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)43.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)85.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)48.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.1% to +4.2%
Medium-term
+0.7% to +7.4%
Long-term
+1.6% to +10.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 31

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score43.8/100
Target Upside-25.2%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score47.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+1.6%
6M Momentum+1.2%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+38.9%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.75)
Relative Strength vs Sector+132.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.276
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
7%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P58
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P77
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 41 relative to sector peers41/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 31th percentileP31
Blended score: 80% fundamental (41) + 20% ML (31) = 38.838.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 19% โ†’ 0.0pt; Positive momentum 157% โ†’ -3.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.9pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-304.7%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Speculative: SPEC_MICRO (3.0pt penalty)Speculative
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #185 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
INNV31.8N/A11.8%-0.5%$1.2B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

InnovAge Holding Corp. manages and provides a range of medical and ancillary services for seniors in need of care and support to live independently in their homes and communities. It manages its business through Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) approach. The company offers in-home care services consisting of skilled, unskilled, and personal care; in-center services, such as primary care, physical therapy, occupational therapy, speech therapy, dental services, mental health and psychiatric services, meals, and activities; transportation to the PACE center and third-party medical appointments; and care management. It serves approximately 6,850 PACE participants in the United States; and operates 18 PACE centers in Colorado, California, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. The company was formerly known as TCO Group Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to InnovAge Holding Corp. in January 2021. InnovAge Holding Corp. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

CEO
Patrick Blair
Employees
2,350
Beta
0.57
Industry
Medical - Care Facilities
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
73.0
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-0.1%
High: $9.31
From 52W Low
+257.7%
Low: $2.6
Moving Averages
10-Day
$8.50
Above
20-Day
$7.80
Above
50-Day
$6.50
Above
200-Day
$4.90
Above
60-Day Support
$4.7
60-Day Resistance
$9.31
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 91/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+89.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+23.79%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.3x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$240M$236M$218M$218M
Gross Profit$48M$51M$41M$41M
Operating Income$16M$8M$-10M$-10M
Net Income$11M$8M$-11M$-11M
EPS (Diluted)$0.08$-0.08$-0.08$-0.08
Gross Margin20.0%21.8%18.7%18.7%
Operating Margin6.7%3.5%-4.7%-4.7%
Net Margin4.4%3.4%-5.2%-5.2%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 11.8%

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 45/100Score impact: -28.6pt

Volume
51
214K avg/day
Dollar Vol
11
$2M/day
Float
51
21M shares
Mkt Cap
44
$1.2B
Range
100
253% spread
Composite Liquidity Score45/100
FDCBA
low dollar volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$3.46$27.18154.8%Wide
2022$3.39$7.8579.4%Wide
2023$5.04$8.1547.2%Wide
2024$3.52$6.6962.1%Wide
2025$2.60$6.2682.6%Wide
3-Year Range
103.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
15.8%
Outstanding Shares
136M
Bid-Ask Spread
253.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.