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50

HTHT

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

H World Group Limited

Conservative #543Aggressive #567Low RiskModerate 61ML↑ 20pt
$54.52-0.05%
Day High$55.38
Day Low$54.24
Volume1.5M
Mkt Cap$16.8B
52W Low $3052W High $56
Market Cap
$16.2B
P/E Ratio
30.5
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
9.2%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-25.4%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
2.91

Why This Score

HTHT scores 50.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 25.0% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.91) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -12.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, HTHT would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score50.9
Fundamental Score57.9
ML Score63.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
68.0
6 Month
76.0
Primary
1 Year
80.0

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Country Risk:
Score penalty of points applied for domicile risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
61
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
98
Grade A
Base
48.3
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-1.4
Final
50.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

57AVG
Value55
Quality70
Growth45
Stability35
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)44.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)91.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)68.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.6% to +7.3%
Medium-term
+4.8% to +12.0%
Long-term
+7.0% to +16.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 63

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score60.5/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score61.7/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.5%
6M Momentum+0.5%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+8.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.84)
Relative Strength vs Sector+53.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.474
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
8%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P71
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P29
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P97
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 80th percentileP80
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.8pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (60.2) + 9% ML (79.9) + SHAP(+3.8) = 65.8—
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 8.4%. Max drawdown 13% (-2.0 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($16.2B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.4pt (ML 20pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Country risk: China -14.0pt [structural: -8pt, macro: -6.0pt] (VIE structure risk, HFCAA delisting risk, regulatory seizure precedent)Country
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: High leverage: D/E ratio of 2.9x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #47 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
HTHT50.930.59.2%12.8%$16.2B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy19 analysts
Buy: 11Hold: 5Sell: 3
Price Target
$48consensus
Low $32Median $51High $56
-12.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

H World Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops leased and owned, manachised, and franchised hotels primarily in the People's Republic of China. The company operates hotels under its own brands, such as HanTing Hotel, Ni Hao Hotel, Hi Inn, Elan Hotel, Zleep Hotels, Ibis Hotel, JI Hotel, Orange Hotel, Starway Hotel, Ibis Styles Hotel, CitiGO Hotel, Crystal Orange Hotel, IntercityHotel, Manxin Hotel, Mercure Hotel, Madison Hotel, Novotel Hotel, Joya Hotel, Blossom House, Steigenberger Hotels & Resorts, MAXX by Steigenberger, Jaz in the City, Grand Mercure, Steigenberger Icon, and Song Hotels. As of June 30, 2022, it operated 8,176 hotels with 773,898 rooms. The company was formerly known as Huazhu Group Limited and changed its name to H World Group Limited in June 2022. H World Group Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

CEO
Hui Jin
Employees
28,502
Beta
0.12
Industry
Travel Lodging
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
78.7
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.8%
High: $55.5
From 52W Low
+80.5%
Low: $30.2
Moving Averages
10-Day
$53.80
Above
20-Day
$51.70
Above
50-Day
$50.00
Above
200-Day
$40.60
Above
60-Day Support
$45.44
60-Day Resistance
$55.5
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+34.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+11.34%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.11x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$7.0B$6.4B$5.4B$6.0B
Gross Profit$2.9B$2.7B$1.8B$2.1B
Operating Income$2.0B$1.8B$1.1B$902M
Net Income$1.5B$1.5B$894M$49M
EPS (Diluted)$4.60$4.80$2.80$0.16
Gross Margin41.6%41.6%33.2%35.5%
Operating Margin29.4%27.8%20.1%15.0%
Net Margin21.1%24.0%16.6%0.8%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalProfit margin 12.8%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 98/100Score impact: -16.6pt

Volume
100
1.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$82M/day
Float
100
304M shares
Mkt Cap
83
$16.2B
Range
100
83% spread
Composite Liquidity Score98/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$32.99$61.8560.9%Wide
2022$21.98$45.9870.6%Wide
2023$32.45$53.5249%Wide
2024$27.03$42.9845.6%Wide
2025$30.13$49.4948.6%Wide
3-Year Range
65.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
98.8%
Outstanding Shares
308M
Bid-Ask Spread
83.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.