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52

CVGW

πŸ›’ Consumer Defensive

Calavo Growers, Inc.

Conservative #554Aggressive #372Low Risk
$26.84+1.09%
Day High$26.98
Day Low$26.16
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$480M
52W Low $1852W High $29
Market Cap
$478M
P/E Ratio
23.8
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
-2.0%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
1661.2%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.11

Why This Score

CVGW scores 52.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (18%) β€” steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (72/100) β€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-6.6 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score52.8
Fundamental Score50.3
ML Score76.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
63.8
6 Month
71.3
Primary
1 Year
75.0

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality β€” weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
59
Grade Clow float, small cap
Base
50.4
SHAP
+3.1
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-1.6
Final
52.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

67AVG
Value69
Quality37
Growth68
Stability77
Investment86

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)55.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)54.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs β†’ ML Score: 76

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.0/100
Target Upside+27.6%
Coverage10 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score61.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 β€” Topping
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+20.6%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.17)
Relative Strength vs Sector+8.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.1)
Momentum Quality+0.132
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
11%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P18
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P42
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P31
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
-0.3Οƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 50 relative to sector peers50/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 76th percentileP76
Blended score: 80% fundamental (50) + 20% ML (76) = 55.455.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 25% β†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -1.6pt (ML 26pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive β€” Rank #28 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CVGW52.823.8-2.0%3.1%$478M
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%β€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Calavo Growers, Inc. markets and distributes avocados, prepared avocados, and other perishable foods to retail grocery and foodservice customers, club stores, mass merchandisers, food distributors, and wholesale customers worldwide. It operates in three segments: Fresh Products, Calavo Foods, and Renaissance Food Group (RFG). The Fresh products segment distributes avocados and other fresh produce products comprising tomatoes and papayas; and procures avocados grown in California, Mexico, Peru, and Colombia. The Calavo Foods segment is involved in purchasing, processing, packaging, and distributing prepared avocado products, including guacamole and salsa. The RFG segment manufactures, markets, and distributes fresh-cut fruits and vegetables, fresh prepared entrΓ©e salads, wraps, sandwiches, and fresh snacking products, as well as ready-to-heat entrees, other hot bar and various deli items, meals kits and related components, and salad kits. The company offers its products under the Calavo and RFG brands, and related logos; and Avo Fresco, Bueno, Calavo Gold, Calavo Salsa Lisa, Salsa Lisa, Celebrate the Taste, El Dorado, Fresh Ripe, Select, Taste of Paradise, The First Name in Avocados, Tico, Mfresh, Maui Fresh International, Triggered Avocados, ProRipeVIP, RIPE NOW!, Garden Highway Fresh Cut, Garden Highway, and Garden Highway Chef Essentials trademarks. Calavo Growers, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Santa Paula, California.

CEO
John Pawlowski
Employees
2,106
Beta
0.40
Industry
Food Distribution
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
69.5
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.5%
High: $28.72
From 52W Low
+45.9%
Low: $18.4
Moving Averages
10-Day
$26.40
Above
20-Day
$25.90
Above
50-Day
$24.20
Above
200-Day
$25.00
Above
60-Day Support
$20.08
60-Day Resistance
$27.54
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 β€” ToppingScore: 32/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Transition signal: 3β†’4
Price vs 200 SMA
+7.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.97%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.47x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
20
Confidence: 80%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
$23.01
Stop Entry Now Target
$27.65
No Entry
β€”
No new entry β€” distribution phase
Exit Target
$26.84
Reduce at current price ($26.84)
Stop Level
$23.72
Below SMA50 ($23.72)

Stage 3 distribution β€” institutional selling pressure is building. Avoid new positions. If already holding, consider reducing and tightening stops below SMA50.

Technical zones only β€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$125M$179M$191M$154M
Gross Profit$12M$18M$18M$16M
Operating Income$-2M$9M$8M$5M
Net Income$4M$5M$7M$4M
EPS (Diluted)$0.21$0.49$0.38$0.25
Gross Margin9.3%10.2%9.5%10.2%
Operating Margin-1.4%4.8%4.0%3.3%
Net Margin3.1%2.6%3.6%2.9%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveP/E ratio of 23.8Valuation below sector median (P/E 23.8)

Tradability FilterGrade C β€” 59/100Score impact: -11.2pt

Volume
75
446K avg/day
Dollar Vol
63
$12M/day
Float
39
17M shares
Mkt Cap
27
$478M
Range
88
56% spread
Composite Liquidity Score59/100
FDCBA
low floatsmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$33.25$85.4087.9%Wide
2022$27.29$45.5050%Wide
2023$21.59$38.9757.4%Wide
2024$20.30$31.2642.5%Wide
2025$18.40$28.7243.8%Wide
3-Year Range
71.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.11x dampening
weinstein decliningslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
93.2%
Outstanding Shares
18M
Bid-Ask Spread
56.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.