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53

GRFS

🏥 Healthcare

Grifols, S.A.

Conservative #482Aggressive #172Low RiskMixed 57ML↑ 19pt
$9.25+1.98%
Day High$9.29
Day Low$9.03
Volume0.7M
Mkt Cap$7.8B
52W Low $652W High $11
Market Cap
$7.7B
P/E Ratio
14.3
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
9.4%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
270.8%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
1.71

Why This Score

GRFS scores 53.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 14.3x earnings, below the market average.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (12%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.71) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-3.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score53.0
Fundamental Score47.5
ML Score72.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
81.4
6 Month
91.0
Primary
1 Year
95.7

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
46
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
56
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
76
Grade Blow dollar volume
Base
50.4
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-1.4
Final
53.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

69AVG
Value85
Quality55
Growth90
Stability45
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)56.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)55.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)63.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 72

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.3/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score45.9/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+17.2%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.41)
Relative Strength vs Sector-12.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.2)
Momentum Quality+0.103
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
14%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P56
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P32
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P100
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 72 relative to sector peers72/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 91th percentileP91
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (71.5) + 9% ML (90.6) + SHAP(+3.7) = 76.9
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 9.9%. Max drawdown 16% (-3.2 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($7.7B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.3pt (ML 19pt higher)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -21 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Earnings growth (271%) far exceeds revenue growth (9.4%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 29x — earnings quality suspect; High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.7x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #64 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
GRFS53.014.39.4%2.2%$7.7B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy8 analysts
Buy: 4Hold: 2Sell: 2

Company Overviewvia FMP

Grifols, S.A. engages in the procurement, manufacture, preparation, and sale of therapeutic products, primarily hemoderivatives. The company operates through Bioscience, Hospital, Diagnostic, Bio Supplies, and Others divisions. The Bioscience division researches, develops, produces, and markets plasma-derived medicines and other innovative solutions to treat patients with chronic, rare, prevalent, and life-threatening diseases. It offers immunoglobulins, alpha-1 antitrypsin, albumin, clotting factors, and hyperimmune globulins. The Hospital division offers non-biological pharmaceutical products and medical supplies clinical nutrition, intravenous therapy, and medical devices. The Diagnostic division researches, develops, produces, and commercializes diagnostic products that span the healthcare continuum–from prevention, screening, diagnosis, and prognosis to disease and treatment monitoring–to serve professionals. The Bio Supplies division provides biological materials for life-science research, clinical trials, and for manufacturing pharmaceutical and diagnostic products. Its products and services are used by healthcare providers to diagnose and treat patients with hemophilia, immune deficiencies, infectious diseases, and other medical conditions. The company serves public and private customers; and wholesalers, distributors, group purchasing organizations, blood banks, hospitals and care institutions, and national health systems. Grifols, S.A. has a technology collaboration agreement with Mondragon. The company was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Barcelona, Spain.

CEO
Jose Ignacio Abia Buenache
Employees
23,833
Beta
1.21
Industry
Drug Manufacturers - General
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
44.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-17%
High: $11.14
From 52W Low
+49.4%
Low: $6.19
Moving Averages
10-Day
$9.30
Below
20-Day
$9.30
Below
50-Day
$9.20
Above
200-Day
$9.30
Below
60-Day Support
$7.64
60-Day Resistance
$9.77
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 28/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-0.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+5.79%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.05x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
3
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$1.9B$1.9B$1.8B$2.0B
Gross Profit$752M$744M$705M$766M
Operating Income$383M$349M$269M$372M
Net Income$127M$117M$60M$69M
EPS (Diluted)$0.19$0.17$0.09$0.10
Gross Margin40.3%39.3%39.5%38.8%
Operating Margin20.5%18.4%15.1%18.8%
Net Margin6.8%6.2%3.3%3.5%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 14.3Valuation below sector median (P/E 14.3)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 76/100Score impact: -2.7pt

Volume
79
490K avg/day
Dollar Vol
43
$4M/day
Float
100
845M shares
Mkt Cap
74
$7.7B
Range
100
80% spread
Composite Liquidity Score76/100
FDCBA
low dollar volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$10.10$19.0761.5%Wide
2022$5.71$13.3480.1%Wide
2023$6.50$12.1560.6%Wide
2024$5.30$11.7375.5%Wide
2025$6.19$11.1457.1%Wide
3-Year Range
78.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.9%
Outstanding Shares
846M
Bid-Ask Spread
80.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.