Back to Dashboard
48

COIN

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Coinbase Global, Inc. - 3

Conservative #621Aggressive #581High RiskHigh 90
$183.94+13.52%
Day High$185.82
Day Low$169.75
Volume23.7M
Mkt Cap$49.6B
52W Low $13952W High $445
Market Cap
$44.3B
P/E Ratio
36.9
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
9.4%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-51.1%
Profit Margin
17.6%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.53

Why This Score

COIN scores 47.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (90/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (19.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score47.9
Fundamental Score39.4
ML Score83.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
41.1
6 Month
45.9
Primary
1 Year
48.3

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.1%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
57
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
62
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
99
Grade A
Base
48.2
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.7
Divergence
-4.3
Final
47.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

56AVG
Value55
Quality85
Growth35
Stability75
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)28.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-6.5% to -1.8%
Medium-term
-9.2% to -2.3%
Long-term
-11.9% to -2.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 83

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.1/100
Target Upside+70.6%
Coverage35 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+22.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.52)
Relative Strength vs Sector-32.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.2)
Momentum Quality-0.103
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P64
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P15
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P28
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 55 relative to sector peers55/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 50th percentileP50
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (55.3) + 9% ML (50.1) + SHAP(+2.4) = 57.2โ€”
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($44.3B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.4pt (conviction=90)โ€”
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 19.7%. Max drawdown 57% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -24% (-3.8 pts)High
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -12 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: COIN has ~75% correlation with Bitcoin. Revenue and earnings are primarily driven by Bitcoin price, not operational improvement. Score reflects Bitcoin momentum, not company-specific alpha.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #178 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
COIN47.936.99.4%17.6%$44.3B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy35 analysts
Buy: 20Hold: 12Sell: 3
Price Target
$275consensus
Low $120Median $272High $440
+49.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Coinbase Global, Inc. provides financial infrastructure and technology for the cryptoeconomy in the United States and internationally. It offers the primary financial account in the cryptoeconomy for consumers; a marketplace with a pool of liquidity for transacting in crypto assets for institutions; and technology and services that enable developers to build crypto-based applications and securely accept crypto assets as payment. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Wilmington, Delaware.

CEO
Brian Armstrong
Employees
3,772
Beta
3.70
Industry
Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
55.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-58.6%
High: $444.65
From 52W Low
+32%
Low: $139.36
Moving Averages
10-Day
$163.20
Above
20-Day
$170.60
Above
50-Day
$211.90
Below
200-Day
$288.50
Below
60-Day Support
$139.36
60-Day Resistance
$284.74
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 13/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-36.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.28%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.48x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
68
Confidence: 40%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.0B$1.9B$1.5B$2.0B
Gross Profit$742M$1.6B$1.1B$1.5B
Operating Income$-444M$481M$-25M$706M
Net Income$-667M$433M$1.4B$66M
EPS (Diluted)$-2.49$1.50$5.14$0.24
Gross Margin71.9%86.4%71.5%75.3%
Operating Margin-43.1%25.7%-1.6%34.7%
Net Margin-64.6%23.1%95.4%3.2%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesProfit margin 17.6%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 99/100Score impact: -15.7pt

Volume
100
10.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$1.7B/day
Float
100
220M shares
Mkt Cap
97
$44.3B
Range
100
219% spread
Composite Liquidity Score99/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$208.00$429.5469.5%Wide
2022$31.83$258.81156.2%Wide
2023$31.55$187.39142.4%Wide
2024$114.51$349.75101.3%Wide
2025$142.58$444.65102.9%Wide
3-Year Range
173.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
81.6%
Outstanding Shares
270M
Bid-Ask Spread
219.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.