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CENTA

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

Central Garden & Pet Company

Conservative #665Aggressive #770Low Risk
$34.54-0.26%
Day High$35.00
Day Low$34.11
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$2.2B
52W Low $2652W High $37
Market Cap
$2.2B
P/E Ratio
15.6
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
-2.2%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
50.8%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
1.02

Why This Score

CENTA scores 48.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (92/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.02) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.9 points) applied. CENTA's rank of #665 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score48.4
Fundamental Score47.1
ML Score48.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
62.5
6 Month
69.9
Primary
1 Year
73.6

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
62
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
62
Grade B
Base
44.4
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.6
Final
48.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

65AVG
Value80
Quality37
Growth68
Stability64
Investment77

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)55.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)70.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.6% to +3.6%
Medium-term
-0.3% to +6.1%
Long-term
+0.0% to +8.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 48

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.5/100
Target Upside+41.9%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score62.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 โ€” Topping
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+5.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.36)
Relative Strength vs Sector-1.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.9)
Momentum Quality+0.062
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
48%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P13
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P73
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P76
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
-0.3ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 47 relative to sector peers47/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 48th percentileP48
Blended score: 80% fundamental (47) + 20% ML (48) = 47.347.3
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 22% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.6pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Value trap penalty: -0.8ptValue Trap
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #35 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CENTA48.415.6-2.2%5.0%$2.2B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Central Garden & Pet Company produces and distributes various products for the lawn and garden, and pet supplies markets in the United States. It operates through two segments, Pet and Garden. The Pet segment provides dog and cat supplies, such as dog treats and chews, toys, pet beds and grooming products, waste management and training pads, and pet containment; supplies for aquatics, small animals, reptiles, and pet birds, including toys, cages and habitats, bedding, and food and supplements; animal and household health and insect control products; live fish and products for fish, reptiles, and other aquarium-based pets, such as aquariums, furniture and lighting fixtures, pumps, filters, water conditioners, food, and supplements; and products for horses and livestock, as well as outdoor cushions and pillows. This segment sells its products under the Aqueon, Cadet, Comfort Zone, Farnam, Four Paws, Kaytee, K&H Pet Products, Nylabone, and Zilla brands. The Garden segment offers lawn and garden supplies products that include grass seed; wild bird feed, bird feeders, bird houses, and other birding accessories; fertilizers; decorative outdoor lifestyle products; live plants; and weed and grass, as well as other herbicides, insecticide, and pesticide products. This segment sells its lawn and garden supplies products under the AMDRO, Ferry-Morse, Pennington, and Sevin brands, as well as under Bell Nursery, Lilly Miller, and Over-N-Out other brand names. Central Garden & Pet Company was founded in 1955 and is based in Walnut Creek, California.

CEO
Nicholas Lahanas
Employees
6,000
Beta
0.63
Industry
Packaged Foods
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
55.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7.5%
High: $37.35
From 52W Low
+33%
Low: $25.97
Moving Averages
10-Day
$34.70
Below
20-Day
$33.60
Above
50-Day
$31.10
Above
200-Day
$31.20
Above
60-Day Support
$28.43
60-Day Resistance
$35.5
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 โ€” ToppingScore: 34/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+10.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.45%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.94x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
19
Confidence: 70%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
$29.57
Stop Entry Now Target
$35.58
No Entry
โ€”
No new entry โ€” distribution phase
Exit Target
$34.54
Reduce at current price ($34.54)
Stop Level
$30.48
Below SMA50 ($30.48)

Stage 3 distribution โ€” institutional selling pressure is building. Avoid new positions. If already holding, consider reducing and tightening stops below SMA50.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$617M$678M$961M$834M
Gross Profit$191M$197M$332M$273M
Operating Income$17M$-6M$135M$93M
Net Income$7M$-10M$95M$64M
EPS (Diluted)$0.11$-0.16$1.52$0.98
Gross Margin30.9%29.0%34.6%32.8%
Operating Margin2.7%-0.9%14.1%11.2%
Net Margin1.1%-1.4%9.9%7.6%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveP/E ratio of 15.6Valuation below sector median (P/E 15.6)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 62/100Score impact: -15.5pt

Volume
60
298K avg/day
Dollar Vol
61
$10M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.2B
Range
82
44% spread
Composite Liquidity Score62/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 21/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$31.44$44.6634.7%Moderate
2022$26.95$38.9036.3%Wide
2023$27.02$36.7430.5%Moderate
2024$27.70$41.0338.8%Wide
2025$25.97$37.3535.9%Wide
3-Year Range
45%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
slight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
44.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.