CRESY

🏭 Industrials

Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria

Conservative #477Aggressive #273Moderate RiskHigh 99

Market Cap

$753M

P/E Ratio

4.7

Sector avg: 64.5

Rev Growth

28.5%

Sector avg: 19.0%

Earnings Growth

22.5%

Profit Margin

22.3%

Sector avg: -48.2%

Debt/Equity

1.86

Why This Score

CRESY scores 53.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths

Strong profitability: ROE of 23.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
High net margin of 22.3%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
Attractively valued at 4.7x earnings, below the market average.
Positive but moderate momentum (20%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
High conviction (99/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.

Risk Factors

Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
Above-average volatility (12.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
Elevated leverage (D/E 1.85) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score53.2

Fundamental Score53.1

ML Score59.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month

69.8

6 Month

78.0

Primary

1 Year

82.1

Quality Assessment

Earnings Grade

Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation

Confidence

high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score

Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)

Weinstein (12.1%)

100

Advancing

Sentiment (2.5%)

Positive

Analyst (6.4%)

Favorable

Tradability (post-hoc)

Grade Clow dollar volume

Base

49.2

SHAP

+1.7

Factors

+0.4

Conviction

+1.9

Final

53.2

Positive adjustment

Negative adjustment

Base blend

Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)81.0

Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)75.0

External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0

Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score

Features

Confidence

Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term

-0.3% to +4.0%

Medium-term

+0.4% to +7.0%

Long-term

+1.1% to +10.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 59

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence

Consensus Score75.0/100

Target Upside+10.8%

Coverage1 analysts

Market Sentiment

Sentiment Score60.3/100

News Volume1 articles

Technical Stage

Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing

12M Momentum+0.2%

6M Momentum+0.3%

Volatility+0.1%

Momentum & Technical

Momentum Acceleration-5.9%

Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.77)

Relative Strength vs Sector+8.2%

Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.6)

Momentum Quality+0.152

Momentum BreadthBroad ✓

Macro Regime

Bull RegimeYes

High Vol RegimeNo

S&P 500 Return+25.0%

Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal

10%

Low risk

Sector RevGr Rank

P86

Revenue growth vs Industrials peers

Sector PE Rank

P71

Valuation vs Industrials peers

Sector FCF Rank

P96

Free cash flow vs Industrials peers

Growth Deviation

+0.3σ

Z-score vs sector median

Stagnation Flag

Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors

Fundamental score of 77 relative to sector peers77/100

Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 82th percentileP82

ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight

SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)—

Blend: 91% fund (76.7) + 9% ML (82.4) + SHAP(+3.0) = 80.2—

Factor quality: +0.7pt (multi-factor composite)—

Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.4%. Max drawdown 23% (-6.1 pts)Moderate

Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.8B market cap)-15.0 pts

Conviction bonus: +3.5pt (conviction=99)—

Risk Factors

Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -12 pointsGrade C

Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (45.8%) exceeds net margin (22.3%) by 23pp — possible write-down; High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.9x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #43 of 135 stocks)

Stock	Score	P/E	Rev Growth	Margin	Mkt Cap
CRESYCresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria	53.2	4.7	28.5%	22.3%	$753M
FERFerrovial SE	83.7	12.2	7.4%	35.3%	$51.9B
NDSNNordson Corporation	76.3	35.1	3.8%	17.4%	$16.6B
OMABGrupo Aeroportuario del Centro	76.1	20.1	4.3%	32.7%	$6.2B
ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.	75.8	39.8	-0.9%	20.4%	$40.6B
FASTFastenal Company	72.7	42.6	8.7%	15.3%	$53.3B
WWDWoodward, Inc.	70.9	47.8	7.3%	12.4%	$22.8B
CSXCSX Corporation	70.9	26.5	-3.1%	20.5%	$76.0B
LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.	70.9	31.5	-4.4%	11.6%	$16.2B
CTASCintas Corporation	70.4	41.9	7.7%	17.5%	$77.7B
PCARPACCAR Inc.	70.4	28.2	-4.2%	12.4%	$66.7B
RYAAYRyanair Holdings plc	69.7	13.0	3.8%	11.6%	$34.3B
CPRTCopart, Inc.	69.1	23.0	9.7%	33.4%	$36.3B
FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc.	68.5	35.5	-2.1%	8.9%	$4.8B
AEISAdvanced Energy Industries, Inc	67.8	81.2	21.4%	8.3%	$11.9B
IESCIES Holdings, Inc.	67.7	30.9	16.9%	9.1%	$10.3B
Sector Average	45.2	64.5	19.0%	-48.2%	—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for CRESY.

Why This Stock

IndustrialsP/E ratio of 4.7Revenue growth 28.5%Profit margin 22.3%Valuation below sector median (P/E 4.7)

Tradability FilterGrade C — 51/100Score impact: -21.0pt

Volume

264K avg/day

Dollar Vol

$3M/day

Float

33M shares

Mkt Cap

$753M

Range

74% spread

Composite Liquidity Score51/100

FDCBA

low dollar volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100

Year	Low	High	Range	Status
2021	$3.84	$7.25	61.5%	Wide
2022	$4.02	$9.42	80.4%	Wide
2023	$5.39	$10.01	60%	Wide
2024	$6.51	$14.11	73.7%	Wide
2025	$8.32	$13.97	50.7%	Wide

3-Year Range

89.4%

Narrow Years

0 / 5

Sideways Penalty

None

Free Float

53.3%

Outstanding Shares

63M

Bid-Ask Spread

74.0%

Institutional Tradable

Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.