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SERV

๐Ÿญ Industrials

Serve Robotics Inc.

Conservative #1230Aggressive #312Moderate RiskLow 17Fโ†‘ 27pt
$10.36+7.14%
Day High$10.59
Day Low$9.70
Volume4.8M
Mkt Cap$576M
52W Low $552W High $19
Market Cap
$527M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
773.3%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-57.9%
Profit Margin
-4124.1%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.01

Why This Score

SERV scores 24.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (98/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (29.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -21.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, SERV would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score24.7
Fundamental Score26.6
ML Score98.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
2.1
6 Month
2.3
Primary
1 Year
2.5

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Speculative Classification
Anomalous margin data โ€” extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 4 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.7%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
69
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
85
Grade A
Base
36.9
SHAP
+0.7
Factors
-1.3
Conviction
-3.2
Divergence
-8.5
Final
24.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)40.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-40.4% to -28.4%
Medium-term
-55.9% to -39.9%
Long-term
-71.9% to -47.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 98

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.5/100
Target Upside+124.5%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score69.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+20.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.43)
Relative Strength vs Sector-5.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.2)
Momentum Quality+0.044
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P100
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P72
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P6
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+3.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 42 relative to sector peers42/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 16th percentileP16
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.7pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (42.2) + 9% ML (15.0) + SHAP(+0.7) = 40.5โ€”
Factor quality: -1.3pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 29.2%. Max drawdown 28% (-7.9 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.5B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -3.2pt (conviction=17)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -2.5pt (fund 27pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-4124.1%) exceeds operating margin (-4424.2%) by 300pp โ€” likely one-time item; High accrual ratio (29.1%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #118 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SERV24.7N/A773.3%-4124.1%$527M
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average45.264.519.0%-48.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Serve Robotics Inc. designs, develops, and operates low-emission robots that serve people in public spaces with food delivery in the United States. It builds self-driving delivery robots. The company was formerly known as Patricia Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to Serve Robotics Inc. in July 2023. Serve Robotics Inc. was founded in 2017 and is based in Redwood City, California.

CEO
Ali Kashani
Employees
120
Beta
2.79
Industry
Industrial - Machinery
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
51.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-44.4%
High: $18.64
From 52W Low
+122.3%
Low: $4.66
Moving Averages
10-Day
$9.60
Above
20-Day
$10.10
Above
50-Day
$11.40
Below
200-Day
$11.40
Below
60-Day Support
$8.93
60-Day Resistance
$16.08
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 20/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-9.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+10.81%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.53x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
18
Confidence: 40%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$686,535$642,000$440,465$175,842
Gross Profit$-4M$-3M$-1M$-656,042
Operating Income$-35M$-23M$-15M$-14M
Net Income$-33M$-21M$-13M$-13M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.54$-0.36$-0.36$-0.36
Gross Margin-637.9%-445.3%-333.4%-373.1%
Operating Margin-5071.6%-3527.1%-3406.6%-7721.0%
Net Margin-4809.9%-3247.7%-3000.5%-7461.0%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsRevenue growth 773.3%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 85/100Score impact: -31.0pt

Volume
100
6.7M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$62M/day
Float
76
46M shares
Mkt Cap
30
$527M
Range
100
300% spread
Composite Liquidity Score85/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2024$1.77$24.09172.6%Wide
2025$4.66$24.35135.7%Wide
3-Year Range
172.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 2
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
82.1%
Outstanding Shares
56M
Bid-Ask Spread
300.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.