Back to Dashboard
8

ALF

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Centurion Acquisition Corp.

Conservative #1383Aggressive #1473Low RiskFโ†‘ 25pt
$10.77+0.56%
Day High$10.77
Day Low$10.72
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$387M
52W Low $1052W High $11
Market Cap
$386M
P/E Ratio
25.4
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
0.0%
Profit Margin
-9401.7%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

ALF scores 8.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (0.5% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Net penalties of -45.1 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ALF would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score8.0
Fundamental Score59.4
ML Score5.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
1.9
6 Month
2.2
Primary
1 Year
2.3

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.005 vol with only 0.0% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety
Speculative Classification
Anomalous margin data โ€” extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 4 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
41
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, very low dollar volume
Base
14.5
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
-0.3
Conviction
-2.3
Divergence
-5.9
Final
8.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

49AVG
Value61.84675
Quality22
Growth40
Stability94
Investment29

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)44.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-13.9% to -2.6%
Medium-term
-18.6% to -2.7%
Long-term
-23.2% to -2.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 5

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score40.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+3.3%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.38)
Relative Strength vs Sector-3.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality+0.053
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P40
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P21
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P16
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 59 relative to sector peers59/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 5th percentileP5
Blended score: 80% fundamental (59) + 20% ML (5) = 48.548.5
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.0%; Drawdown 0% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -2.3pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -5.9pt (ML 54pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: False stability: 0.005 vol with only 0.0% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safetyFlag
Speculative: ANOMALY_MARGIN (4.0pt penalty)Speculative
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #326 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ALF8.025.40.0%-9401.7%$386M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Centurion Acquisition Corp. operates as a blank check company. The Company aims to acquire one and more businesses and assets, via a merger, capital stock exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, and reorganization.

CEO
Mark Gerhard
Beta
1.17
Industry
Shell Companies
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
57.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
+0%
High: $10.77
From 52W Low
+5.8%
Low: $10.18
Moving Averages
10-Day
$10.80
Below
20-Day
$10.70
Above
50-Day
$10.70
Above
200-Day
$10.60
Above
60-Day Support
$10.6
60-Day Resistance
$10.77
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 63/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+1.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+1.18%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
2.78x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Breakout Volume Confirmed

Entry & Exit Zones

In Entry Zone
$10.08
Stop Entry Now Target
$13.58
Entry Zone
$10.59 โ€“ $11.02
SMA50 pullback zone ($10.59โ€“$11.02)
Exit Target
$13.18
52-week high / +22% target ($13.18)
Stop Level
$10.39
Below SMA200 ($10.39)
Risk / Reward:1 : 5.72Favorable

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$-129,000
Gross Profit$0$0$0$2M
Operating Income$-208,203$-135,546$-150,000$6M
Net Income$3M$3M$3M$3M
EPS (Diluted)$0.08$0.08$0.08$0.19
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Financial Services

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -15.6pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
37K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$394K/day
Float
0
16M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$386M
Range
0
6% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumevery low dollar volumelow floatsmall caprange bound

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Range-BoundSideways: 100/100
Range-Bound Stock

This stock has traded in a compressed range for 2 of the last 2 years (3-year range: 7.2%). Range-bound stocks may indicate limited upside potential. A -5pt penalty has been applied.

YearLowHighRangeStatus
2024$9.96$10.252.9%Narrow
2025$10.10$10.705.8%Narrow
3-Year Range
7.2%
Narrow Years
2 / 2
Sideways Penalty
-5pt

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
stagnation flagrange bound

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
44.2%
Outstanding Shares
36M
Bid-Ask Spread
6.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.