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54

ADP

๐Ÿ’ป Technology

Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

Conservative #515Aggressive #429Moderate Risk
$214.36-1.83%
Day High$215.80
Day Low$208.92
Volume4.2M
Mkt Cap$86.7B
52W Low $20352W High $330
Market Cap
$86.5B
P/E Ratio
20.4
Sector avg: 49.8
Rev Growth
7.1%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
8.7%
Profit Margin
19.8%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
1.46

Why This Score

ADP scores 53.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 65.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Low volatility (5.4% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • High conviction (74/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.47) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-4.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score53.8
Fundamental Score45.4
ML Score89.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
65.1
6 Month
72.8
Primary
1 Year
76.6

Quality Assessment

A
Quality Grade
Excellent quality โ€” strong profitability, low leverage, no flags

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
40
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
51
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
99
Grade A
Base
54.1
SHAP
+2.8
Factors
+1.2
Divergence
-4.3
Final
53.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

71AVG
Value70
Quality85
Growth60
Stability60
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)57.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)42.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)73.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.0% to +2.0%
Medium-term
-2.7% to +3.3%
Long-term
-3.4% to +4.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 89

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.7/100
Target Upside+31.5%
Coverage35 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score39.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-1.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.94)
Relative Strength vs Sector-34.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.207
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
22%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P40
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P55
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P68
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 89th percentileP89
Blended score: 80% fundamental (45) + 20% ML (89) = 54.154.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 34% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade A
SHAP feature alignment: +2.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -4.3pt (ML 44pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology โ€” Rank #110 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ADP53.820.47.1%19.8%$86.5B
MPWR85.191.721.2%81.0%$54.7B
ZM84.518.03.1%21.7%$22.0B
NVDA80.745.2114.2%55.8%$4.4T
CRUS80.319.16.0%17.5%$7.2B
CSCO78.027.65.3%18.0%$310.0B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$562.8B
RMBS77.748.320.7%32.3%$10.7B
IDCC77.731.8-4.0%48.8%$9.5B
ADI75.674.116.9%20.6%$172.3B
FSLR75.317.326.7%30.7%$20.8B
SIMO74.59.210.2%13.8%$4.3B
AAPL74.433.16.4%27.0%$4.0T
LRCX74.048.323.7%29.1%$296.8B
DBX74.013.91.9%17.7%$6.6B
TER73.790.95.4%19.2%$50.8B
Sector Average48.149.814.8%-110.0%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). The Employer Services segment offers strategic, cloud-based platforms, and human resources (HR) outsourcing solutions. Its offerings include payroll, benefits administration, talent management, HR management, workforce management, insurance, retirement, and compliance services, as well as integrated HCM solutions. The PEO Services segment provides HR outsourcing solutions to small and mid-sized businesses through a co-employment model. This segment offers benefits package, protection and compliance, talent engagement, expertise, comprehensive outsourcing, and recruitment process outsourcing services. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Roseland, New Jersey.

CEO
Maria Black
Employees
64,000
Beta
0.85
Industry
Staffing & Employment Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
35.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-35%
High: $329.93
From 52W Low
+5.5%
Low: $203.26
Moving Averages
10-Day
$213.10
Above
20-Day
$222.00
Below
50-Day
$244.00
Below
200-Day
$280.30
Below
60-Day Support
$203.26
60-Day Resistance
$268.08
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 13/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-23.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-5.48%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.38x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$5.4B$5.2B$5.1B$5.6B
Gross Profit$2.5B$2.3B$2.6B$2.9B
Operating Income$1.3B$-123M$1.2B$1.6B
Net Income$1.1B$1.0B$911M$1.2B
EPS (Diluted)$2.63$2.49$2.23$3.06
Gross Margin46.1%45.2%50.3%51.7%
Operating Margin23.8%-2.4%23.5%29.4%
Net Margin19.8%19.6%17.8%22.5%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 20.4Profit margin 19.8%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 99/100Score impact: -10.8pt

Volume
100
2.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$569M/day
Float
100
402M shares
Mkt Cap
100
$86.5B
Range
90
61% spread
Composite Liquidity Score99/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 36/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$169.01$248.9638.3%Wide
2022$192.26$274.9235.4%Wide
2023$201.46$256.8424.2%Narrow
2024$231.27$309.6329%Moderate
2025$247.18$329.9328.7%Moderate
3-Year Range
48.4%
Narrow Years
3 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.4%
Outstanding Shares
404M
Bid-Ask Spread
61.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.