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VITL

πŸ›’ Consumer Defensive

Vital Farms, Inc.

Conservative #712Aggressive #361Moderate RiskF↑ 25pt
$21.09-4.61%
Day High$21.95
Day Low$20.63
Volume3.7M
Mkt Cap$944M
52W Low $2052W High $53
Market Cap
$1.2B
P/E Ratio
20.1
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
28.5%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
108.8%
Profit Margin
8.5%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.17

Why This Score

VITL scores 46.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 20.2% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (15.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. VITL's rank of #712 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score46.7
Fundamental Score44.5
ML Score44.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
40.8
6 Month
45.6
Primary
1 Year
48.0

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality β€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
84
Grade A
Base
44.4
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.5
Final
46.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

68AVG
Value67
Quality58
Growth98
Stability62
Investment53

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)74.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)34.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.6% to -1.1%
Medium-term
-8.1% to -1.4%
Long-term
-10.6% to -1.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs β†’ ML Score: 44

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+81.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 β€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+30.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.32)
Relative Strength vs Sector-23.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.9)
Momentum Quality-0.079
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P96
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P53
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P9
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
+0.9Οƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 44th percentileP44
Blended score: 80% fundamental (45) + 20% ML (44) = 44.444.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 44% β†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive β€” Rank #41 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VITL46.720.128.5%8.5%$1.2B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%β€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Vital Farms, Inc., an ethical food company, provides pasture-raised products in the United States. It offers shell eggs, butter, hard-boiled eggs, ghee, liquid whole eggs, and egg bite products. Vital Farms, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

CEO
Russell Diez-Canseco
Employees
598
Beta
1.09
Industry
Agricultural Farm Products
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
25.1
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-60.3%
High: $53.13
From 52W Low
+6.5%
Low: $19.8
Moving Averages
10-Day
$25.80
Below
20-Day
$26.30
Below
50-Day
$28.80
Below
200-Day
$36.10
Below
60-Day Support
$19.8
60-Day Resistance
$36.1
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 β€” DecliningScore: 6/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-41.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.62%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.68x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
85
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
β€”
No entry β€” active downtrend
Exit Target
β€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
β€”
No stop β€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend β€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only β€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$214M$199M$185M$162M
Gross Profit$76M$75M$72M$63M
Operating Income$21M$21M$24M$22M
Net Income$16M$16M$17M$17M
EPS (Diluted)$0.35$0.36$0.36$0.37
Gross Margin35.8%37.7%38.9%38.5%
Operating Margin10.0%10.8%12.9%13.4%
Net Margin7.6%8.3%9.0%10.4%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveP/E ratio of 20.1Revenue growth 28.5%Valuation below sector median (P/E 20.1)

Tradability FilterGrade A β€” 84/100Score impact: -2.4pt

Volume
100
1.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
97
$46M/day
Float
67
37M shares
Mkt Cap
43
$1.2B
Range
100
109% spread
Composite Liquidity Score84/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$15.14$29.7064.9%Wide
2022$7.89$19.3884.3%Wide
2023$10.00$18.1858.1%Wide
2024$14.16$48.41109.5%Wide
2025$28.87$53.1359.2%Wide
3-Year Range
136.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
82.0%
Outstanding Shares
45M
Bid-Ask Spread
109.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.