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IMKTA

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

Ingles Markets, Incorporated

Conservative #478Aggressive #923Low RiskMLโ†‘ 15pt
$85.10+0.57%
Day High$86.42
Day Low$84.62
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$1.6B
52W Low $5952W High $90
Market Cap
$1.6B
P/E Ratio
17.4
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
-5.4%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
-20.8%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.33

Why This Score

IMKTA scores 55.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (79/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score55.1
Fundamental Score55.7
ML Score59.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
73.3
6 Month
82.0
Primary
1 Year
86.3

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
48
Grade Clow volume, low float
Base
51.1
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Final
55.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

63AVG
Value80
Quality31
Growth19
Stability84
Investment100

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)40.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)88.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)64.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.3% to +7.1%
Medium-term
+4.0% to +11.1%
Long-term
+6.4% to +16.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 59

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score56.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.5%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+14.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.70)
Relative Strength vs Sector+37.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.417
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
43%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P5
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P71
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P64
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 56 relative to sector peers56/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 59th percentileP59
Blended score: 80% fundamental (56) + 20% ML (59) = 56.456.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 11% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Value trap penalty: -0.3ptValue Trap
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #22 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
IMKTA55.117.4-5.4%1.8%$1.6B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Ingles Markets, Incorporated operates a chain of supermarkets in the southeast United States. It offers food products, including grocery, meat and dairy products, produce, frozen foods, and other perishables; and non-food products, which include fuel centers, pharmacies, health and beauty care products, and general merchandise, as well as private label items. The company also owns and operates a milk processing and packaging plant that supplies organic milk, fruit juices, and bottled water products to other retailers, food service distributors, and grocery warehouses. In addition, it provides home meal replacement items, delicatessens, bakeries, floral departments, and greeting cards, as well as broad selections of local organic, beverage, and health-related items. As of September 25, 2021, the company operated 189 supermarkets under the brand name Ingles, and nine supermarkets under the brand name Sav-Mor in western North Carolina, western South Carolina, northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia, and northeastern Alabama, as well as 111 pharmacies and 107 fuel stations. Ingles Markets, Incorporated was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Asheville, North Carolina.

CEO
James W. Lanning
Employees
11,072
Beta
0.77
Industry
Grocery Stores
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
50.6
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6%
High: $90.49
From 52W Low
+44.4%
Low: $58.92
Moving Averages
10-Day
$87.00
Below
20-Day
$85.10
Below
50-Day
$76.50
Above
200-Day
$70.00
Above
60-Day Support
$67.92
60-Day Resistance
$90.49
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 78/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+21.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.02%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.14x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone
$66.54
Stop Entry Now Target
$97.10
Entry Zone
$75.74 โ€“ $78.80
SMA50 pullback zone ($75.74โ€“$78.8)
Exit Target
$94.27
52-week high / +22% target ($94.27)
Stop Level
$68.60
Below SMA200 ($68.6)
Risk / Reward:1 : 1.96Tight

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$1.4B$1.4B$1.3B$1.3B
Gross Profit$335M$335M$327M$311M
Operating Income$39M$35M$37M$22M
Net Income$28M$26M$26M$15M
EPS (Diluted)$1.48$1.35$1.38$0.80
Gross Margin24.4%24.5%24.3%23.4%
Operating Margin2.9%2.6%2.8%1.6%
Net Margin2.0%1.9%1.9%1.1%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveP/E ratio of 17.4Valuation below sector median (P/E 17.4)

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 48/100Score impact: -9.6pt

Volume
24
121K avg/day
Dollar Vol
61
$11M/day
Float
46
19M shares
Mkt Cap
53
$1.6B
Range
87
54% spread
Composite Liquidity Score48/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 20/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$51.06$92.7658%Wide
2022$74.63$102.9931.9%Moderate
2023$73.38$99.6530.4%Moderate
2024$59.73$89.5940%Wide
2025$58.92$78.5928.6%Moderate
3-Year Range
51.4%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.5x dampening
revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.4%
Outstanding Shares
19M
Bid-Ask Spread
54.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.