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USAR

⛏️ Basic Materials

USA Rare Earth Inc

Conservative #1174Aggressive #994High RiskModerate 62
$20.13+0.25%
Day High$20.47
Day Low$19.47
Volume10.9M
Mkt Cap$2.0B
52W Low $652W High $44
Market Cap
$1.9B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 40.4%
Earnings Growth
30.4%
Profit Margin
-77.4%
Sector avg: -552.9%
Debt/Equity
1.46

Why This Score

USAR scores 25.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (38.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.46) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-8.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score25.9
Fundamental Score38.3
ML Score8.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
39.0
6 Month
43.6
Primary
1 Year
45.9

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality — weak profitability or high leverage
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Speculative micro-cap — no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 6 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.1%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
90
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
91
Grade A
Base
26.2
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.2
Divergence
-2.3
Final
25.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

52AVG
Value50
Quality33
Growth63
Stability35
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)67.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)65.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)91.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-6.9% to -2.1%
Medium-term
-9.5% to -2.4%
Long-term
-12.0% to -2.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 8

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+84.9%
Coverage3 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score90.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.7%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.4%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+44.3%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.40)
Relative Strength vs Sector+18.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.0)
Momentum Quality+0.454
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
18%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P50
Revenue growth vs Basic Materials peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Basic Materials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P90
Free cash flow vs Basic Materials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 38 relative to sector peers38/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 8th percentileP8
Blended score: 80% fundamental (38) + 20% ML (8) = 32.232.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.4%; Drawdown 39% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -2.3pt (ML 30pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Speculative: SPEC_GROWTH, SPEC_MICRO (6.0pt penalty)Speculative

Sector Peer Comparison(Basic Materials — Rank #24 of 31 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
USAR25.9N/A0.0%-77.4%$1.9B
RGLD77.839.418.8%46.2%$18.7B
LIN71.932.90.5%19.9%$236.7B
BCPC71.339.63.4%13.5%$5.8B
STLD67.823.83.6%6.5%$27.7B
UFPI67.621.2-7.8%6.2%$6.1B
WDFC62.736.05.0%14.4%$3.2B
IOSP60.217.3-3.7%6.6%$1.9B
KALU58.018.611.5%3.3%$2.1B
SCZM53.713.15.3%25.1%$1.1B
ELE53.6105.829.9%15.4%$1.4B
HWKN52.336.96.0%7.8%$3.1B
MEOH51.917.9-0.1%6.0%$3.7B
AUGO51.313.842.5%-5.1%$7.1B
SSRM48.627.3-30.2%-26.2%$6.2B
ALM41.8N/AN/A-216.3%$3.8B
Sector Average41.637.540.4%-552.9%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy3 analysts
Buy: 3
Price Target
$34consensus
Low $33Median $35High $35
+70.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

USA Rare Earth, Inc. operates as a magnet manufacturing company. The Company develops a NdFeB magnet manufacturing, minerals supply, extraction, and processing plant. USA Rare Earth serves defense, automotive, aviation, industrial, medical, and consumer electronics industries in the United States.

CEO
Barbara W. Humpton
Employees
30
Beta
0.96
Industry
Industrial Materials
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
48.3
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-54.2%
High: $43.98
From 52W Low
+262.1%
Low: $5.56
Moving Averages
10-Day
$19.10
Above
20-Day
$20.80
Below
50-Day
$18.60
Above
200-Day
$16.30
Above
60-Day Support
$11.72
60-Day Resistance
$32.07
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 86/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+23.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+15.95%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.8x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
37
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$312M$0$0$5M
Gross Profit$255M$0$0$3M
Operating Income$180M$-9M$0$-1M
Net Income$-157M$-143M$52M$1M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.64$-1.54$0.58$-0.38
Gross Margin81.5%N/AN/A50.0%
Operating Margin57.8%N/AN/A-25.6%
Net Margin-50.1%N/AN/A24.6%

Why This Stock

Basic MaterialsEarnings quality grade D

Tradability FilterGrade A — 91/100Score impact: -27.5pt

Volume
100
17.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$331M/day
Float
88
69M shares
Mkt Cap
57
$1.9B
Range
100
691% spread
Composite Liquidity Score91/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 10/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2023$10.07$10.383%Narrow
2024$10.33$15.1838%Wide
2025$5.56$43.98155.1%Wide
3-Year Range
155.1%
Narrow Years
1 / 3
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
70.9%
Outstanding Shares
97M
Bid-Ask Spread
691.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.