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TSCO

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Tractor Supply Company

Conservative #385Aggressive #555Low RiskMixed 42ML↑ 29pt
$51.77-2.82%
Day High$53.20
Day Low$51.70
Volume4.8M
Mkt Cap$27.4B
52W Low $4752W High $64
Market Cap
$28.0B
P/E Ratio
25.5
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
4.3%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-0.5%
Profit Margin
7.1%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
3.73

Why This Score

TSCO scores 56.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 44.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 3.73) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. TSCO's rank of #385 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score56.8
Fundamental Score50.0
ML Score64.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
71.8
6 Month
80.2
Primary
1 Year
84.4

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 3.7x — balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
48
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
95
Grade A
Base
55.6
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.6
Divergence
-2.8
Final
56.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)47.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 64

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.0/100
Target Upside+9.5%
Coverage50 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score47.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+11.3%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.11)
Relative Strength vs Sector+0.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.2)
Momentum Quality+0.009
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P55
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P37
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P20
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 57 relative to sector peers57/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.5pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (56.8) + 9% ML (85.5) + SHAP(+2.5) = 61.8—
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.6%. Stability bonus of +8.7 points. Max drawdown 18% (-4.1 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($28.0B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -0.8pt (conviction=42)—
Divergence penalty: -2.8pt (ML 29pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -14 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-49.2%) — earnings quality concern; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 3.7x — balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #35 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TSCO56.825.54.3%7.1%$28.0B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy50 analysts
Buy: 27Hold: 22Sell: 1
Price Target
$59consensus
Low $50Median $59High $67
+14.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company offers a selection of merchandise, including equine, livestock, pet, and small animal products necessary for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, such as heating products, lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; work/recreational clothing and footwear; and maintenance products for agricultural and rural use. It provides its products under the 4health, Producer's Pride, American Farmworks, Red Shed, Bit & Bridle, Redstone, Blue Mountain, Retriever, C.E. Schmidt, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Dumor, Strive, Groundwork, Traveller, Huskee, Treeline, JobSmart, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Paws & Claws, and Untamed brands. As of June 25, 2022, it operated 2,016 Tractor Supply stores in 49 states; and 178 Petsense stores in 23 states. The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply, and Petsense names; and operates websites under the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com names. It sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.

CEO
Harry A. Lawton
Employees
52,000
Beta
0.73
Industry
Specialty Retail
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
35.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-19.1%
High: $63.99
From 52W Low
+10.5%
Low: $46.85
Moving Averages
10-Day
$53.30
Below
20-Day
$53.50
Below
50-Day
$52.50
Below
200-Day
$54.80
Below
60-Day Support
$49.34
60-Day Resistance
$56.28
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 45/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1→2
Price vs 200 SMA
-5.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.24%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.76x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
7
Confidence: 80%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$3.9B$3.7B$4.4B$3.5B
Gross Profit$998M$1.4B$1.5B$1.3B
Operating Income$298M$343M$578M$249M
Net Income$227M$259M$430M$179M
EPS (Diluted)$0.43$0.49$0.81$0.34
Gross Margin25.6%37.4%34.2%36.2%
Operating Margin7.6%9.2%13.0%7.2%
Net Margin5.8%7.0%9.7%5.2%

Why This Stock

Consumer Cyclical

Tradability FilterGrade A — 95/100Score impact: +8.5pt

Volume
100
6.7M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$363M/day
Float
100
526M shares
Mkt Cap
89
$28.0B
Range
66
37% spread
Composite Liquidity Score95/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.6%
Outstanding Shares
528M
Bid-Ask Spread
37.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.