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50

SNCY

๐Ÿญ Industrials

Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #574Aggressive #517Moderate RiskHigh 98
$19.82-0.45%
Day High$20.16
Day Low$19.70
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$1.1B
52W Low $852W High $22
Market Cap
$1.1B
P/E Ratio
20.5
Sector avg: 64.5
Rev Growth
4.7%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-0.2%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.95

Why This Score

SNCY scores 49.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (32%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (98/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (14.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. SNCY's rank of #574 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score49.8
Fundamental Score48.5
ML Score45.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
59.0
6 Month
66.0
Primary
1 Year
69.4

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
75
Grade B
Base
45.8
SHAP
+1.4
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.9
Final
49.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)48.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)54.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.1% to +4.3%
Medium-term
+0.8% to +7.5%
Long-term
+1.7% to +10.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 45

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.6/100
Target Upside-10.9%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score52.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.6%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-28.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.53)
Relative Strength vs Sector+19.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.2)
Momentum Quality+0.251
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
22%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P50
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P54
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P82
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 69th percentileP69
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (69.5) + 9% ML (68.7) + SHAP(+2.4) = 71.8โ€”
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 14.7%. Max drawdown 20% (-5.0 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.1B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.4pt (conviction=98)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-197.5%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #51 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SNCY49.820.54.7%4.7%$1.1B
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average45.264.519.0%-48.2%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy11 analysts
Buy: 6Hold: 5
Price Target
$18consensus
Low $13Median $20High $21
-9.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc., an air carrier company, provides scheduled passenger, air cargo, charter air transportation, and related services in the United States, Latin America, and internationally. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated a fleet of 48 aircraft, including 36 passenger and 12 cargo aircraft. Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

CEO
Jude I. Bricker
Employees
3,124
Beta
1.58
Industry
Airlines, Airports & Air Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
53.2
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-11.1%
High: $22.29
From 52W Low
+144.7%
Low: $8.1
Moving Averages
10-Day
$20.60
Below
20-Day
$19.90
Below
50-Day
$17.40
Above
200-Day
$13.50
Above
60-Day Support
$13.18
60-Day Resistance
$22.29
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+46.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+10.11%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.56x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
63
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$281M$256M$264M$327M
Gross Profit$184M$162M$174M$234M
Operating Income$18M$10M$16M$56M
Net Income$8M$2M$7M$37M
EPS (Diluted)$0.15$0.03$0.12$0.66
Gross Margin65.4%63.6%66.0%71.6%
Operating Margin6.5%3.9%6.2%17.2%
Net Margin2.9%0.6%2.5%11.2%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsP/E ratio of 20.5Valuation below sector median (P/E 20.5)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 75/100Score impact: -15.7pt

Volume
100
1.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
84
$26M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
41
$1.1B
Range
100
175% spread
Composite Liquidity Score75/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$23.97$44.1359.2%Wide
2022$13.25$30.6179.2%Wide
2023$12.39$23.8063.1%Wide
2024$9.22$16.3455.7%Wide
2025$8.10$18.5978.6%Wide
3-Year Range
98.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
175.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.