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64

SIGI

🏦 Financial Services

Selective Insurance Group, Inc.

Conservative #288Aggressive #210Low RiskModerate 66ML↑ 22pt
$83.52+0.78%
Day High$83.52
Day Low$83.46
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$5.0B
52W Low $7252W High $93
Market Cap
$5.0B
P/E Ratio
11.1
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
9.8%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
125.3%
Profit Margin
8.7%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.25

Why This Score

SIGI scores 63.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 11.1x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.1% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. SIGI's rank of #288 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score63.5
Fundamental Score60.7
ML Score65.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
82.4
6 Month
92.1
Primary
1 Year
96.9

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
42
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
55
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
79
Grade B
Base
59.5
SHAP
+2.7
Factors
+1.3
Final
63.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)68.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)74.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)52.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+14.0% to +20.6%
Medium-term
+20.4% to +30.2%
Long-term
+29.6% to +43.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 65

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score54.7/100
Target Upside-0.4%
Coverage16 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score41.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-9.3%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.24)
Relative Strength vs Sector-6.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.6)
Momentum Quality+0.024
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
24%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P66
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P76
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P93
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 73 relative to sector peers73/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 95th percentileP95
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (73.2) + 9% ML (95.1) + SHAP(+3.7) = 78.8—
Factor quality: +1.8pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.1%. Stability bonus of +11.7 points. Max drawdown 17% (-3.6 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($5.1B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.7pt (ML 22pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -16 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Earnings growth (125%) far exceeds revenue growth (9.8%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; High accrual ratio (-166.8%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #106 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SIGI63.511.19.8%8.7%$5.0B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
ACT84.48.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.4B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.8B
FFIN77.418.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
NMIH77.07.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$16.0B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.6B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

Selective Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products and services in the United States. It operates through four segments: Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines, E&S Lines, and Investments. The company offers property insurance products, which covers the financial consequences of accidental loss of an insured's real property, personal property, and/or earnings due to the property's loss; and casualty insurance products that covers the financial consequences of employee injuries in the course of employment, and bodily injury and/or property damage to a third party, as well as flood insurance products. It also invests in fixed income investments and commercial mortgage loans, as well as equity securities and alternative investment portfolio. The company offers its insurance products and services to businesses, non-profit organizations, local government agencies, and individuals through independent retail agents and wholesale general agents. Selective Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Branchville, New Jersey.

CEO
John Joseph Marchioni
Employees
2,800
Beta
0.23
Industry
Insurance - Property & Casualty
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
18.7
Oversold
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-10.6%
High: $93.38
From 52W Low
+16.4%
Low: $71.75
Moving Averages
10-Day
$84.80
Below
20-Day
$86.20
Below
50-Day
$84.50
Below
200-Day
$82.30
Above
60-Day Support
$76
60-Day Resistance
$91.31
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 28/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
+1.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-1.25%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.9x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
20
Confidence: 80%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.4B$1.4B$1.3B$1.3B
Gross Profit$1.4B$163M$130M$167M
Operating Income$156M$146M$109M$139M
Net Income$155M$115M$86M$110M
EPS (Diluted)$2.52$1.85$1.36$1.76
Gross Margin100.0%12.0%9.8%13.0%
Operating Margin11.4%10.7%8.2%10.8%
Net Margin11.4%8.5%6.5%8.6%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.1Valuation below sector median (P/E 11.1)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 79/100Score impact: -2.3pt

Volume
81
514K avg/day
Dollar Vol
95
$43M/day
Float
84
60M shares
Mkt Cap
68
$5.0B
Range
41
30% spread
Composite Liquidity Score79/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 46/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$67.09$91.4630.7%Moderate
2022$66.81$98.8038.6%Wide
2023$87.66$108.1821%Narrow
2024$81.00$109.5830%Moderate
2025$71.75$96.4929.4%Moderate
3-Year Range
41.7%
Narrow Years
3 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
98.5%
Outstanding Shares
60M
Bid-Ask Spread
30.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.