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PBYI

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Puma Biotechnology, Inc.

Conservative #405Aggressive #624Low Risk
$5.70-25.00%
Day High$6.86
Day Low$5.50
Volume1.7M
Mkt Cap$287M
52W Low $352W High $8
Market Cap
$374M
P/E Ratio
9.3
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
-2.2%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
40.2%
Profit Margin
17.4%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.36

Why This Score

PBYI scores 58.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 36.1% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 9.3x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (88/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (18.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-8.6 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score58.2
Fundamental Score65.0
ML Score54.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
74.0
6 Month
82.7
Primary
1 Year
87.0

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality โ€” solid metrics, minor concerns possible
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $0.3B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
60
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
55
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
53
Grade Clow dollar volume, small cap
Base
54.2
SHAP
+2.2
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.1
Final
58.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

77AVG
Value80
Quality79
Growth68
Stability78
Investment81

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)76.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)86.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)66.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+4.0% to +9.0%
Medium-term
+6.7% to +14.3%
Long-term
+10.4% to +20.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 54

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score55.3/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score59.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.9%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+55.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.39)
Relative Strength vs Sector+66.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.8)
Momentum Quality+0.821
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
76%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P16
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P95
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P95
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 65 relative to sector peers65/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 54th percentileP54
Blended score: 80% fundamental (65) + 20% ML (54) = 62.862.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 9% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +2.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.1pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $0.3B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Value trap penalty: -3.6ptValue Trap
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #54 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PBYI58.29.3-2.2%17.4%$374M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$20.2B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$18.1B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$2.9B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$14.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$125.2B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.3B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.8B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$210.2B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$48.0B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$81.3B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$177.8B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy19 analysts
Buy: 8Hold: 7Sell: 4

Company Overviewvia FMP

Puma Biotechnology, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of products to enhance cancer care in the United States and internationally. The company's drug candidates include PB272 neratinib (oral) for the patients with early stage HER2-overexpressed/amplified breast cancer; PB272 (neratinib, oral) for the use of neratinib in combination with capecitabine for the treatment of adult patients with advanced or metastatic HER2-positive breast cancer; PB272 (neratinib, oral) for HER2 mutation-positive solid tumors. It has a license agreement with Pfizer, Inc.; and sub-license agreement with Specialised Therapeutics Asia Pte Ltd., CANbridge BIOMED Limited, Pint Pharma International SA, Knight Therapeutics, Inc., Pierre Fabre Medicament SAS, and Bixink Therapeutics Co., Ltd. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

CEO
Alan H. Auerbach
Employees
172
Beta
1.21
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
33.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-25.8%
High: $7.68
From 52W Low
+120.9%
Low: $2.58
Moving Averages
10-Day
$6.90
Below
20-Day
$6.90
Below
50-Day
$6.40
Below
200-Day
$4.90
Above
60-Day Support
$4.84
60-Day Resistance
$7.68
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 70/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+16.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+24.14%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.22x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Entry & Exit Zones

Below Entry Zone
$4.66
Stop Entry Now Target
$8.13
Entry Zone
$6.34 โ€“ $6.59
SMA50 pullback zone ($6.34โ€“$6.59)
Exit Target
$7.89
52-week high / +22% target ($7.89)
Stop Level
$4.80
Below SMA200 ($4.8)
Risk / Reward:1 : 0.86Tight

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$76M$54M$52M$46M
Gross Profit$52M$42M$40M$35M
Operating Income$17M$10M$7M$4M
Net Income$13M$9M$6M$3M
EPS (Diluted)$0.26$0.17$0.12$0.06
Gross Margin69.3%77.7%76.5%77.1%
Operating Margin22.6%17.6%12.7%8.7%
Net Margin17.7%16.2%11.2%6.5%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 9.3Profit margin 17.4%Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 9.3)

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 53/100Score impact: -6.9pt

Volume
70
401K avg/day
Dollar Vol
23
$3M/day
Float
69
39M shares
Mkt Cap
16
$374M
Range
100
183% spread
Composite Liquidity Score53/100
FDCBA
low dollar volumesmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$2.78$11.95124.5%Wide
2022$1.60$5.16105.3%Wide
2023$2.13$4.8978.6%Wide
2024$2.23$7.73110.4%Wide
2025$2.58$6.2783.4%Wide
3-Year Range
113.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
slight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
76.4%
Outstanding Shares
50M
Bid-Ask Spread
183.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.