Back to Dashboard
71

PAX

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Patria Investments Limited

Conservative #115Aggressive #413Low RiskMLโ†‘ 21pt
$13.12-2.81%
Day High$13.31
Day Low$12.86
Volume1.4M
Mkt Cap$2.1B
52W Low $952W High $18
Market Cap
$2.1B
P/E Ratio
25.9
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
2.6%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
19.1%
Profit Margin
22.3%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.28

Why This Score

PAX scores 71.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 22.3%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (29%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. PAX's rank of #115 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score71.6
Fundamental Score68.8
ML Score73.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
74.5
6 Month
83.3
Primary
1 Year
87.6

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality โ€” solid metrics, minor concerns possible
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Low FCF/NI ratio (0.17) with 22.3% net margin โ€” reported earnings may not be cash-backed

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
74
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
73
Grade B
Base
67.6
SHAP
+3.1
Factors
+0.9
Final
71.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

66AVG
Value62
Quality62
Growth57
Stability83
Investment65

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)68.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)78.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.2% to +6.9%
Medium-term
+4.2% to +11.4%
Long-term
+6.2% to +15.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 73

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.0/100
Target Upside+48.4%
Coverage5 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score73.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+23.6%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.17)
Relative Strength vs Sector+19.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.5)
Momentum Quality+0.250
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
9%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P45
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P21
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P79
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 69 relative to sector peers69/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 73th percentileP73
Blended score: 80% fundamental (69) + 20% ML (73) = 69.669.6
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 12% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Low FCF/NI ratio (0.17) with 22.3% net margin โ€” reported earnings may not be cash-backedFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #50 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PAX71.625.92.6%22.3%$2.1B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy5 analysts
Buy: 3Hold: 2
Price Target
$20consensus
Low $20Median $20High $20
+52.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm focused on investing in Latin America. The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investments funds, constructivist equity funds, and real estate and credit funds. Patria Investments Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.

CEO
Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpcao Saigh
Employees
577
Beta
0.68
Industry
Asset Management
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
32.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-26.3%
High: $17.8
From 52W Low
+39.1%
Low: $9.43
Moving Averages
10-Day
$13.60
Below
20-Day
$13.90
Below
50-Day
$15.40
Below
200-Day
$14.40
Below
60-Day Support
$12.86
60-Day Resistance
$17.8
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 31/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3โ†’4
Price vs 200 SMA
-8.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+10.07%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.16x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
13
Confidence: 50%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$134M$86M$83M$80M
Gross Profit$122M$72M$68M$65M
Operating Income$49M$30M$30M$29M
Net Income$35M$23M$13M$16M
EPS (Diluted)$0.22$0.15$0.08$0.09
Gross Margin91.0%82.8%82.3%82.2%
Operating Margin36.7%35.2%36.5%37.0%
Net Margin25.7%26.0%15.6%19.7%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesProfit margin 22.3%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 73/100Score impact: +4.3pt

Volume
90
746K avg/day
Dollar Vol
60
$10M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.1B
Range
100
89% spread
Composite Liquidity Score73/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$13.40$22.0048.6%Wide
2022$12.25$19.2044.2%Wide
2023$12.81$17.4630.7%Moderate
2024$10.63$16.1641.3%Wide
2025$9.43$16.4754.4%Wide
3-Year Range
59.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
89.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.