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56

GCMG

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

GCM Grosvenor Inc.

Conservative #450Aggressive #445Low RiskMLโ†‘ 41pt
$11.58-2.69%
Day High$11.83
Day Low$11.55
Volume0.7M
Mkt Cap$2.2B
52W Low $1052W High $14
Market Cap
$2.2B
P/E Ratio
14.8
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
6.5%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
142.7%
Profit Margin
8.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
17.79

Why This Score

GCMG scores 56.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 14.8x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.5% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 17.79) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. GCMG's rank of #450 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score56.4
Fundamental Score54.1
ML Score56.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
83.3
6 Month
93.1
Primary
1 Year
98.0

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 17.8x โ€” balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
77
Grade B
Base
52.4
SHAP
+2.8
Factors
+1.2
Final
56.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

59AVG
Value47
Quality38
Growth77
Stability62
Investment71

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)58.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+9.7% to +15.5%
Medium-term
+14.5% to +23.4%
Long-term
+21.0% to +33.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 56

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+64.2%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score61.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-6.3%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.45)
Relative Strength vs Sector-20.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.1)
Momentum Quality-0.099
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P58
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P51
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P56
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 54 relative to sector peers54/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 56th percentileP56
Blended score: 80% fundamental (54) + 20% ML (56) = 54.554.5
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 15% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 17.8x โ€” balance sheet riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #145 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
GCMG56.414.86.5%8.1%$2.2B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy8 analysts
Buy: 4Hold: 4
Price Target
$19consensus
Low $14Median $19High $24
+64.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

GCM Grosvenor Inc. is global alternative asset management solutions provider. The firm primarily provides its services to pooled investment vehicles. It also provides its services to investment companies, high net worth individuals, pension and profit sharing plans and state or municipal government entities. The firm invests in equity and alternative investment markets of the United States and internationally. The firm invests in multi-strategy, credit-focused, equity-focused, macro-focused, commodity-focused, and other specialty portfolios. It focuses in hedge fund asset classes, private equity, real estate, and/or infrastructure, credit and absolute return strategies. It also focuses in primary fund investments, secondary fund investments, and co-investments with a focus on buyout, distressed debt, mezzanine, venture capital/growth equity investments. The firm seeks to do seed investments in small, emerging, and diverse private equity firms. The firm seeks to make regionally-focused investments in middle-market buyout. It prefers to invest in aerospace and defense, advanced electronics, information technology, biosciences, and advanced materials. It focuses on Ohio and the Midwest region. The firm employs fundamental and quantitative analysis. GCM Grosvenor Inc. was founded in 1971 and is based in Chicago, Illinois with additional offices in North America, Asia, Australia and Europe.

CEO
Michael Jay Sacks
Employees
549
Beta
0.81
Industry
Asset Management
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
70.1
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-18.3%
High: $14.18
From 52W Low
+17.4%
Low: $9.86
Moving Averages
10-Day
$11.70
Below
20-Day
$11.20
Above
50-Day
$11.40
Above
200-Day
$11.90
Below
60-Day Support
$9.86
60-Day Resistance
$12.36
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 23/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-2.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-3.98%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.1x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
1
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$177M$133M$124M$125M
Gross Profit$176M$132M$124M$125M
Operating Income$64M$44M$19M$15M
Net Income$19M$10M$15M$463,000
EPS (Diluted)$0.18$0.16$0.05$-0.02
Gross Margin99.4%99.1%100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin36.1%33.2%15.5%12.2%
Net Margin10.7%7.9%12.5%0.4%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 14.8

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 77/100Score impact: +13.1pt

Volume
87
685K avg/day
Dollar Vol
56
$8M/day
Float
100
180M shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.2B
Range
82
45% spread
Composite Liquidity Score77/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 1/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$9.72$13.6433.6%Moderate
2022$6.26$11.1055.8%Wide
2023$6.56$9.4836.4%Wide
2024$8.05$12.5843.9%Wide
2025$10.23$14.4834.4%Moderate
3-Year Range
75.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
96.6%
Outstanding Shares
187M
Bid-Ask Spread
45.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.