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17

OXLCZ

🏦 Financial Services

Oxford Lane Capital Corp. 5.00% Notes due 2027

Conservative #1317Aggressive #1468Low Risk
$24.52-0.01%
Day High$24.60
Day Low$24.52
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$11.8B
52W Low $2352W High $25
Market Cap
$11.8B
P/E Ratio
213.2
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
-65.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-79.4%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.38

Why This Score

OXLCZ scores 17.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (1.0% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • High conviction (73/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 213.2x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Net penalties of -35.8 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, OXLCZ would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score17.3
Fundamental Score59.9
ML Score6.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
48.9
6 Month
54.7
Primary
1 Year
57.6

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality — weak profitability or high leverage
2 quality flags detected — see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-21653.6%) — earnings quality concern
False stability: 0.010 vol with only -65.7% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
42
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, very low dollar volume
Base
19.1
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.7
Divergence
-5.8
Final
17.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

45AVG
Value38
Quality28
Growth0
Stability94
Investment63

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)20.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-6.7% to +0.0%
Medium-term
-10.0% to +0.1%
Long-term
-13.2% to +0.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 6

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score41.7/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+4.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.47)
Relative Strength vs Sector-1.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.078
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P2
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P0
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P100
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-1.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 6th percentileP6
Blended score: 80% fundamental (60) + 20% ML (6) = 49.149.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.0%; Drawdown 1% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +3.3pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -5.8pt (ML 54pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-21653.6%) — earnings quality concern; False stability: 0.010 vol with only -65.7% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)Flag
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #311 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
OXLCZ17.3213.2-65.7%0.8%$11.8B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for OXLCZ.

Company Overviewvia FMP

Oxford Lane Capital is an investment company that invests primarily in debt and equity tranches of CLO vehicles.

CEO
Jonathan H. Cohen
Beta
0.07
Industry
Asset Management
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
42.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-0.7%
High: $24.7
From 52W Low
+4.6%
Low: $23.44
Moving Averages
10-Day
$24.50
Above
20-Day
$24.50
Above
50-Day
$24.50
Above
200-Day
$24.30
Above
60-Day Support
$24.21
60-Day Resistance
$24.7
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 22/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+0.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.77%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.22x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 70%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
$23.29
Stop Entry Now Target
$25.26
No Entry
No new entry — distribution phase
Exit Target
$24.52
Reduce at current price ($24.52)
Stop Level
$24.01
Below SMA50 ($24.01)

Stage 3 distribution — institutional selling pressure is building. Avoid new positions. If already holding, consider reducing and tightening stops below SMA50.

Technical zones only — derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q4 2025Q2 2024Q4 2024
Revenue$226M$224M$204M$158M
Gross Profit$157M$0$0$0
Operating Income$48M$4M$83M$136M
Net Income$21M$-17M$66M$120M
EPS (Diluted)$0.24$-0.04$0.26$0.55
Gross Margin69.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Operating Margin21.3%1.6%40.8%86.5%
Net Margin9.3%-7.7%32.1%76.1%

Why This Stock

Financial Services

Tradability FilterGrade F — 0/100Score impact: -20.2pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
5K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$125K/day
Float
0
0K shares
Mkt Cap
0
$11.8B
Range
0
5% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumevery low dollar volumerange bound

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Range-BoundSideways: 100/100
Range-Bound Stock

This stock has traded in a compressed range for 4 of the last 4 years (3-year range: 12.1%). Range-bound stocks may indicate limited upside potential. A -5pt penalty has been applied.

YearLowHighRangeStatus
2022$20.93$25.2018.5%Narrow
2023$21.74$23.387.3%Narrow
2024$22.67$23.925.4%Narrow
2025$23.44$24.544.6%Narrow
3-Year Range
12.1%
Narrow Years
4 / 4
Sideways Penalty
-5pt

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
severe revenue declinestagnation flagrange bound

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
70M
Bid-Ask Spread
5.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.