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68

NTRS

🏦 Financial Services

Northern Trust Corporation

Conservative #179Aggressive #650Low RiskML↑ 39pt
$143.09-3.05%
Day High$146.03
Day Low$140.46
Volume1.4M
Mkt Cap$27.1B
52W Low $8252W High $158
Market Cap
$27.1B
P/E Ratio
15.6
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
-9.9%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-14.5%
Profit Margin
12.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
1.27

Why This Score

NTRS scores 68.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (36%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.27) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-0.3 points) applied. NTRS's rank of #179 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score68.2
Fundamental Score61.1
ML Score78.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
74.8
6 Month
83.7
Primary
1 Year
88.1

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality — moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
54
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
98
Grade A
Base
64.5
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-0.3
Final
68.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

54AVG
Value78
Quality41
Growth19
Stability73
Investment57

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)45.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)85.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.6% to +6.2%
Medium-term
+2.9% to +9.9%
Long-term
+4.6% to +14.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 78

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score54.4/100
Target Upside+4.3%
Coverage34 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+23.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.35)
Relative Strength vs Sector+27.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.7)
Momentum Quality+0.350
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
23%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P10
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P48
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P52
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 61 relative to sector peers61/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 78th percentileP78
Blended score: 80% fundamental (61) + 20% ML (78) = 64.564.5
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 4% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -0.3pt (ML 17pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #72 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NTRS68.215.6-9.9%12.1%$27.1B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold34 analysts
Buy: 12Hold: 16Sell: 6
Price Target
$146consensus
Low $131Median $148High $160
+2.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytical services, employee benefit services, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage services, transition management services, banking, and cash management services. This segment serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage services; and private and business banking services. This segment serves high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately held businesses. The company also provides asset management services, such as active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; alternative asset classes comprising private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. In addition, it offers overlay and other risk management services. Northern Trust Corporation was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

CEO
Michael Gerard O'Grady
Employees
23,400
Beta
1.28
Industry
Asset Management
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-9.2%
High: $157.6
From 52W Low
+75.3%
Low: $81.62
Moving Averages
10-Day
$144.90
Below
20-Day
$147.20
Below
50-Day
$145.10
Below
200-Day
$130.10
Above
60-Day Support
$130.37
60-Day Resistance
$157.6
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 77/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+10%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+11.51%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.99x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Below Entry Zone
$123.68
Stop Entry Now Target
$184.15
Entry Zone
$143.65 – $149.45
SMA50 pullback zone ($143.65–$149.45)
Exit Target
$178.79
52-week high / +22% target ($178.79)
Stop Level
$127.50
Below SMA200 ($127.5)
Risk / Reward:1 : 1.69Tight

Stage 2 uptrend — institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only — derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$3.6B$3.6B$3.6B$3.5B
Gross Profit$2.1B$2.0B$2.0B$1.9B
Operating Income$626M$620M$565M$521M
Net Income$466M$458M$421M$392M
EPS (Diluted)$2.42$2.29$2.13$1.90
Gross Margin58.8%57.1%55.0%55.2%
Operating Margin17.3%17.3%15.7%14.8%
Net Margin12.9%12.8%11.7%11.2%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 15.6Profit margin 12.1%Valuation below sector median (P/E 15.6)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 98/100Score impact: +6.9pt

Volume
100
1.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$147M/day
Float
100
186M shares
Mkt Cap
88
$27.1B
Range
100
93% spread
Composite Liquidity Score98/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.5x dampening
revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.3%
Outstanding Shares
189M
Bid-Ask Spread
93.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.